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Super League

Basel - Lausanne Sport

08/01/2026, 04:00 PM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Basel
1.9
Total xG
2.9
Lausanne Sport
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:0

11%

2:1

10%

3:0

7%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
BASLS

Basel

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.13
Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.13
Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)
-0.06
Bénie Traoré not in squad (9 goals, 3 assists)
Dominik Schmid not in squad (3 goals, 5 assists)
Julien Duranville not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
Andrej Bacanin not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
Léo Leroy on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Giacomo Koloto not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
Strong home record (1.9 vs 1.4 goals/match)

Lausanne Sport

Attack weakness (0.62x league average)
-0.79
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.22
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.5 season average)
-0.22
Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.5 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.67
+0.67
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Lausanne Sport: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 2
    Lausanne Sport: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 3
    Basel with Nicolas Vouilloz: 1.3 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Lausanne Sport with Theo Bair: 1.3 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Basel: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

59%

Draw

25%

Away Win

17%

Goals

Over 1.5

79%

Under 1.5

21%

Over 2.5

54%

Under 2.5

46%

Over 3.5

32%

Under 3.5

68%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

83%

Away or Draw

41%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

53%

No

47%

Key Factors
  • Matchup advantage: Basel's home strength meets the defensive away weakness of Lausanne Sport, who concede an average of 2.43 goals on the road
  • Tactical balance: Basel averaged 4.2 shots on target per game in recent matches
  • Model prediction: Mathematical calculations estimate a home win probability of 59%
Risk Factors
  • Offensive form dip: Basel's goal production has slowed down, averaging 1.0 goals in recent games compared to their season average of 1.4
  • Away defensive vulnerability: Lausanne Sport conceded an average of 2.2 goals per game in recent matches
Overview

Basel (5th place, 3 points) host Lausanne Sport (6th place, 1 point) at St. Jakob-Park

Super League match on August 1, 2026, 6:00 PM

Basel aim to build on their opening win while Lausanne seek their first victory of the season

The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 59%

Form

Basel started with a win (WLLLW)

Most recently they secured a 1-0 win against Servette

Lausanne Sport are still waiting for a win (LLLLD)

Most recently they played out a 1-1 draw against Grasshopper

Statistics

Basel score an average of 1.45 goals per game this season

Lausanne Sport concede an average of 2.43 goals per away game

Basel's home record shows 1.45 goals scored and 1.05 goals conceded per match

Both teams scored in 23 of Basel's 38 games

Head-to-Head

5 head-to-head matches in the database

Basel lead the record with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss

The last meeting on March 1, 2026, ended in a 2-1 win for Basel

In total these matches produced 9 goals for Basel and 10 for Lausanne Sport

Key Players

Xherdan Shaqiri scored 11 goals and provided 10 assists this season

Philip Otele contributed 5 goals and 4 assists so far

Omar Janneh is the most dangerous attacker for the visitors with 8 goals and 1 assist

Not nominated for Basel: Bénie Traoré, Dominik Schmid, Julien Duranville, Andrej Bacanin, Léo Leroy, Giacomo Koloto

Goalkeepers

Jonas Omlin guards the goal for Basel, who kept 9 clean sheets this season

M. Mastil is in goal for Lausanne Sport, who kept 6 clean sheets so far

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at St. Jakob-Park

Stadium statistics show an average of 4.6 goals per game at this venue

Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 historical matches at this stadium

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