Match report →
Basel – Lausanne Sport0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Basel
1.91
Total xG
2.85
Lausanne Sport
0.94
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Basel | Lausanne Sport |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.62x league average) | −0.79 | |
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.67 | +0.67 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.22 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.5 season average) | −0.22 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.13 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.13 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.06 | |
| Bénie Traoré not in squad (9 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Dominik Schmid not in squad (3 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Julien Duranville not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Andrej Bacanin not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Léo Leroy on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Giacomo Koloto not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.9 vs 1.4 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.5 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Matchup advantage: Basel's home strength meets the defensive away weakness of Lausanne Sport, who concede an average of 2.43 goals on the road
- Tactical balance: Basel averaged 4.2 shots on target per game in recent matches
- Model prediction: Mathematical calculations estimate a home win probability of 59%
Risks
- Offensive form dip: Basel's goal production has slowed down, averaging 1.0 goals in recent games compared to their season average of 1.4
- Away defensive vulnerability: Lausanne Sport conceded an average of 2.2 goals per game in recent matches
All probabilities
Result
Basel59%
Draw25%
Lausanne Sport17%
Double chance
Basel or draw83%
Lausanne Sport or draw41%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.554%
Under 2.546%
Over 3.532%
Under 3.568%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:0
11%
2:1
10%
3:0
7%
3:1
6%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Lausanne Sport: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Lausanne Sport: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- Basel with Nicolas Vouilloz: 1.3 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Lausanne Sport with Theo Bair: 1.3 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Basel: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Basel 4-2-3-1 · Lausanne Sport 4-2-3-1
Basel
- 1 J. Omlin
- 6 K. Tsunemoto
- 24 F. Daniliuc
- 55 A. Victory Maduabuchukwu
- 3 N. Vouilloz
- 5 A. Silu
- 8 L. Malachowski Thorell
- 11 K. Olaigbe
- 10 X. Shaqiri
- 7 P. Otele
- 9 Ž. Celar
Lausanne Sport
- 90 M. Mastil
- 2 B. Soppy
- 14 K. Mouanga
- 71 A. Sow
- 18 M. Poaty
- 10 O. Custodio Da Costa
- 8 J. Roche
- 51 I. Mendes
- 27 B. Lekweiry
- 11 N. Butler-Oyedeji
- 78 O. Janneh Susso
Substitutes
- 22 L. Leroy
- 23 A. Ajeti
- 13 M. Salvi
- 27 K. Rüegg
- 17 A. Malouda
- 29 M. Cisse
- 44 J. Harder
- 4 B. Omeragic
- 18 A. Sow
- 1 T. Castella
- 91 F. Mollet
- 7 A. Ajdini
- 17 S. Traore
- 3 T. Fredricson
- 6 T. Bergvall
- 80 S. Koné
- 5 D. Ngonzo
- 49 I. Despotovic
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