Super League
Basel - Lausanne Sport
08/01/2026, 04:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.9
2.9
0.9
1:1
12%2:0
11%2:1
10%3:0
7%3:1
6%What influences the xG?
Basel
Lausanne Sport
League
The Lab
- 1Lausanne Sport: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 2Lausanne Sport: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- 3Basel with Nicolas Vouilloz: 1.3 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- 4Lausanne Sport with Theo Bair: 1.3 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- 5Basel: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
59%
Draw
25%
Away Win
17%
Goals
Over 1.5
79%
Under 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
54%
Under 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
32%
Under 3.5
68%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
83%
Away or Draw
41%
No Draw
75%
Both Score
Yes
53%
No
47%
Key Factors
- Matchup advantage: Basel's home strength meets the defensive away weakness of Lausanne Sport, who concede an average of 2.43 goals on the road
- Tactical balance: Basel averaged 4.2 shots on target per game in recent matches
- Model prediction: Mathematical calculations estimate a home win probability of 59%
Risk Factors
- Offensive form dip: Basel's goal production has slowed down, averaging 1.0 goals in recent games compared to their season average of 1.4
- Away defensive vulnerability: Lausanne Sport conceded an average of 2.2 goals per game in recent matches
Overview
Basel (5th place, 3 points) host Lausanne Sport (6th place, 1 point) at St. Jakob-Park
Super League match on August 1, 2026, 6:00 PM
Basel aim to build on their opening win while Lausanne seek their first victory of the season
The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 59%
Form
Basel started with a win (WLLLW)
Most recently they secured a 1-0 win against Servette
Lausanne Sport are still waiting for a win (LLLLD)
Most recently they played out a 1-1 draw against Grasshopper
Statistics
Basel score an average of 1.45 goals per game this season
Lausanne Sport concede an average of 2.43 goals per away game
Basel's home record shows 1.45 goals scored and 1.05 goals conceded per match
Both teams scored in 23 of Basel's 38 games
Head-to-Head
5 head-to-head matches in the database
Basel lead the record with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss
The last meeting on March 1, 2026, ended in a 2-1 win for Basel
In total these matches produced 9 goals for Basel and 10 for Lausanne Sport
Key Players
Xherdan Shaqiri scored 11 goals and provided 10 assists this season
Philip Otele contributed 5 goals and 4 assists so far
Omar Janneh is the most dangerous attacker for the visitors with 8 goals and 1 assist
Not nominated for Basel: Bénie Traoré, Dominik Schmid, Julien Duranville, Andrej Bacanin, Léo Leroy, Giacomo Koloto
Goalkeepers
Jonas Omlin guards the goal for Basel, who kept 9 clean sheets this season
M. Mastil is in goal for Lausanne Sport, who kept 6 clean sheets so far
Influences
The match will be played on natural grass at St. Jakob-Park
Stadium statistics show an average of 4.6 goals per game at this venue
Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 historical matches at this stadium