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Super League

Grasshopper - Lugano

08/02/2026, 02:30 PM

1 : 4
Expected Goals
Grasshopper
1.0
Total xG
2.4
Lugano
1.5
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

0:1

11%

0:0

10%

0:2

9%

1:2

9%
What influences the xG?
GRALUG

Grasshopper

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.09
Rising form (1.6 vs 1.3 season average)
+0.09
Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 3, 8 places gap)
-0.09
Jonathan Asp Jensen not in squad (8 goals, 7 assists)
Dirk Abels not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists)

Lugano

Attack weakness (0.75x league average)
-0.65
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match)
+0.33
Rising form (2.8 vs 1.7 season average)
+0.33
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 11, 8 places gap)
+0.06
Kevin Behrens on the bench (13 goals, 2 assists)
Yanis Cimignani on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)
24% of goal output missing (only 93% available)
Weak away record (1.3 vs 1.7 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.72
+0.72
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Lugano: first goal in 8 of 8 games (100%)

  • 2
    Lugano: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (3 of 8 total)

  • 3
    Lugano: 74% of xG value comes in the second half (last 7 games with xG data)

  • 4
    Grasshopper: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    Lugano: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

24%

Draw

30%

Away Win

46%

Goals

Over 1.5

72%

Under 1.5

28%

Over 2.5

44%

Under 2.5

56%

Over 3.5

23%

Under 3.5

77%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

54%

Away or Draw

76%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

50%

No

50%

Key Factors
  • Offensive surge: Lugano is currently scoring more frequently (2.8) than their season average (1.7)
  • Tactical pressure: Lugano averaged 7.8 shots on target in recent matches
  • Model favorite: Mathematical predictions show a 46% win probability for Lugano
Risk Factors
  • Defensive fragility of the hosts, conceding 1.62 goals per home match on average
  • Low offensive output: Grasshopper averaged only 3.2 shots on target in recent matches
  • Limited availability of weather data
Overview

Grasshopper hosts Lugano at the Stadion Letzigrund

Super League match on August 2, 2026, 4:30 PM

Lugano enters as 3rd in the standings with 3 points, while Grasshopper occupies 8th place with 1 point

Form

Grasshopper holds a form of LLWWD with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

Lugano is in excellent shape with a DWWWW form, including 4 wins and 1 draw

The visitors travel with a consecutive run of four wins

Statistics

Grasshopper scored 1.26 goals and conceded 1.95 goals per match on average last season

Lugano recorded 1.55 goals and conceded only 1.11 goals per game in their campaign

Lugano averaged 1.47 goals conceded in away games, while Grasshopper scored 1.24 at home

Head-to-Head

Even historical record with 1 win for each side and 3 draws in 5 matches

The goal difference in these direct encounters is balanced at 5:5 goals

The last meeting on March 1, 2026, ended in a 1-0 home victory for Grasshopper

Key Players

Luke Plange is dangerous with 9 goals and 4 assists from last season

Daniel Dos Santos shines with 4 goals and 10 assists for Lugano

Renato Steffen contributed 8 goals and 3 assists

Not nominated: Jonathan Asp Jensen (8G/7A), Dirk Abels (3G/1A) for the hosts, and Kevin Behrens (13G/2A), Yanis Cimignani (3G/1A) for the visitors

Goalkeepers

Justin Hammel made 37 appearances with 2 home clean sheets last season

David von Ballmoos played 15 matches and secured 6 clean sheets in away fixtures

Influences

The game will be played on natural grass at the Stadion Letzigrund

Venue history shows 3.0 goals per game and a BTTS rate of 60%

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