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Grasshopper – Lugano1 : 4
Why the model thinks so
Grasshopper
0.98
Total xG
2.43
Lugano
1.45
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Grasshopper | Lugano |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.72 | +0.72 |
| Attack weakness (0.75x league average) | −0.65 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match) | +0.33 | |
| Rising form (2.8 vs 1.7 season average) | +0.33 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.09 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.09 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 3, 8 places gap) | −0.09 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 11, 8 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| Jonathan Asp Jensen not in squad (8 goals, 7 assists) | ||
| Dirk Abels not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Kevin Behrens on the bench (13 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Yanis Cimignani on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 24% of goal output missing (only 93% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.3 vs 1.7 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Offensive surge: Lugano is currently scoring more frequently (2.8) than their season average (1.7)
- Tactical pressure: Lugano averaged 7.8 shots on target in recent matches
- Model favorite: Mathematical predictions show a 46% win probability for Lugano
Risks
- Defensive fragility of the hosts, conceding 1.62 goals per home match on average
- Low offensive output: Grasshopper averaged only 3.2 shots on target in recent matches
- Limited availability of weather data
All probabilities
Result
Grasshopper24%
Draw30%
Lugano46%
Double chance
Grasshopper or draw54%
Lugano or draw76%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.572%
Under 1.528%
Over 2.544%
Under 2.556%
Over 3.523%
Under 3.577%
Both teams score
Yes50%
No50%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
0:1
11%
0:0
10%
0:2
9%
1:2
9%
1:4
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Lugano: first goal in 8 of 8 games (100%)
- Lugano: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (3 of 8 total)
- Lugano: 74% of xG value comes in the second half (last 7 games with xG data)
- Grasshopper: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Lugano: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Grasshopper 4-3-3 · Lugano 5-3-2
Grasshopper
- 71 J. Hammel
- 28 S. Stroscio
- 73 D. Paloschi
- 4 L. Mikulić
- 57 N. Rissi
- 5 H. Imourane
- 8 T. Meyer
- 6 A. Abrashi
- 7 L. Plange
- 9 N. Muci
- 17 S. Krasniqi
Lugano
- 16 D. von Ballmoos
- 46 M. Zanotti
- 6 A. Papadopoulos
- 17 L. Mai
- 18 J. Bichsel
- 7 E. Alioski
- 25 U. Bislimi
- 8 A. Grgic
- 27 D. dos Santos Correia
- 11 R. Steffen
- 30 D. Moncada
Substitutes
- 22 P. Cretì
- 15 A. Diaby
- 23 S. Marques
- 10 Ó. Clemente Mues
- 60 S. Bengondo
- 55 D.Papic
- 56 D. Sahin
- 1 M. Hübel
- 14 A. Conateh
- 91 K. Behrens
- 4 D. Kelvin
- 14 A. Kendouci
- 24 E. Pihlström
- 21 Y. Cimignani
- 3 H. Delcroix
- 23 G. Ajdin
- 22 B. Castro Espinosa
- 28 F. Gebhardt
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