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Lugano – Zürich5 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Lugano
1.31
Total xG
2.29
Zürich
0.98
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Lugano | Zürich |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.65x league average) | −1.19 | |
| High-scoring league (3.5 goals/match) | +1.00 | +1.00 |
| Attack weakness (0.66x league average) | −0.41 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.36 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match) | +0.31 | |
| Rising form (2.8 vs 1.8 season average) | +0.31 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.09 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.09 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 3, 7 places gap) | −0.07 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 10, 7 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| Daniel Dos Santos on the bench (4 goals, 10 assists) | ||
| Pablo Acebal on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Ivan Cavaleiro not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Juan José Perea on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Nelson Palacio not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 13% of goal output missing (only 93% available) |
Key factors
- Lugano currently scores more frequently (2.8 goals) than their season average (1.8), while Zürich's goal production has stalled (1.0 goals)
- Lugano averaged 7.4 shots on target with 62% possession in recent matches
- Lugano dominated recent duels with 4 wins from 5 matches and has a 74% chance of a home win or draw according to the model
Risks
- Lugano has a shorter recovery time with only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Zürich concedes a high average of 2.25 goals per away game
- Limited data availability regarding weather conditions
All probabilities
Result
Lugano42%
Draw31%
Zürich26%
Double chance
Lugano or draw74%
Zürich or draw58%
No draw69%
Goals
Over 1.568%
Under 1.532%
Over 2.540%
Under 2.560%
Over 3.520%
Under 3.580%
Both teams score
Yes47%
No53%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
12%
1:0
12%
2:0
9%
2:1
9%
5:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Lugano: first goal in 7 of 8 games (88%)
- Zürich with Selmin Hodza: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Lugano: 68% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- Lugano: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Zürich: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Lugano 3-4-2-1 · Zürich 4-1-4-1
Lugano
- 16 D. von Ballmoos
- 6 A. Papadopoulos
- 17 L. Mai
- 3 H. Delcroix
- 46 M. Zanotti
- 8 A. Grgic
- 25 U. Bislimi
- 21 Y. Cimignani
- 11 R. Steffen
- 24 E. Pihlström
- 91 K. Behrens
Zürich
- 13 H. Lindner
- 3 S. Hodža
- 2 L. Kamberi
- 27 I. Sauter
- 43 N. Volken
- 21 L. Schödler
- 7 B. Krasniqi
- 8 L. Comenencia
- 23 V. Berisha
- 11 U. Emmanuel
- 19 P. Keny
Substitutes
- 4 D. Kelvin
- 14 A. Kendouci
- 27 D. dos Santos Correia
- 26 M. Costa Marques
- 30 D. Moncada
- 23 G. Ajdin
- 18 J. Bichsel
- 22 B. Castro Espinosa
- 28 F. Gebhardt
- 17 K. Spadanuda
- 9 J. Perea Mendoza
- 38 M. Reichmuth
- 18 M. Bangoura
- 49 D. Ramić
- 44 S. Walker
- 14 N. Di Giusto
- 42 A. Hack
- 60 T. Pinthus-Duah
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