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Super League

Lugano - Zürich

08/09/2026, 12:00 PM

5 : 0
Expected Goals
Lugano
1.3
Total xG
2.3
Zürich
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

12%

1:0

12%

2:0

9%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
LUGZÜR

Lugano

Attack weakness (0.66x league average)
-0.41
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.36
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match)
+0.31
Rising form (2.8 vs 1.8 season average)
+0.31
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 10, 7 places gap)
+0.04
Daniel Dos Santos on the bench (4 goals, 10 assists)
Pablo Acebal on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists)

Zürich

Attack weakness (0.65x league average)
-1.19
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.09
Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.09
Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 3, 7 places gap)
-0.07
Ivan Cavaleiro not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists)
Juan José Perea on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
Nelson Palacio not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
13% of goal output missing (only 93% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.5 goals/match)
+1.00
+1.00
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Lugano: first goal in 7 of 8 games (88%)

  • 2
    Zürich with Selmin Hodza: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Lugano: 68% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 4
    Lugano: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    Zürich: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

42%

Draw

31%

Away Win

26%

Goals

Over 1.5

68%

Under 1.5

32%

Over 2.5

40%

Under 2.5

60%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

74%

Away or Draw

58%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

47%

No

53%

Key Factors
  • Lugano currently scores more frequently (2.8 goals) than their season average (1.8), while Zürich's goal production has stalled (1.0 goals)
  • Lugano averaged 7.4 shots on target with 62% possession in recent matches
  • Lugano dominated recent duels with 4 wins from 5 matches and has a 74% chance of a home win or draw according to the model
Risk Factors
  • Lugano has a shorter recovery time with only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Zürich concedes a high average of 2.25 goals per away game
  • Limited data availability regarding weather conditions
Overview

Lugano host Zürich

Super League match on August 9, 2026, 2:00 PM

Lugano sits in 2nd place with 6 points

Zürich is in 6th place with 3 points

An important clash in the upper part of the table

Form

Lugano is in outstanding shape with a form of WWWWW

The hosts achieved 5 consecutive wins

Zürich shows inconsistent form with WLLLW

The visitors recorded 2 wins and 3 losses recently

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Lugano scores an average of 1.55 goals per game this season and concedes 1.11 goals

At home, Lugano is defensively stable, conceding only 0.87 goals per match

Zürich scores an average of 1.29 goals per game but concedes 1.89 goals

The visitors' defense is particularly vulnerable away from home, conceding 2.25 goals on average

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches, there were 4 wins for Lugano and 1 win for Zürich

No draws were recorded during this period

The last encounter ended with a 1-0 victory for Lugano on April 11, 2026

The goal difference stands at 7-4 in favor of Lugano

Key Players

Kevin Behrens scored 13 goals this season and holds an average rating of 7.05

Yanis Cimignani scored twice in recent matches and has a rating of 6.91

Anto Grgic already provided 6 assists and reaches a rating of 7.25

Philippe Paulin Keny is a key contributor with 13 goals and 4 assists

Bledian Krasniqi contributed 6 assists and shows a rating of 6.66

Umeh Emmanuel scored 2 goals and provided 4 assists with a rating of 6.57

Not nominated for Lugano: Daniel Dos Santos (4 goals, 10 assists) and Pablo Acebal (1 goal, 3 assists)

Not nominated for Zürich: Ivan Cavaleiro (3 goals, 1 assist), Juan José Perea (2 goals, 0 assists) and Nelson Palacio (0 goals, 2 assists)

Goalkeepers

David von Ballmoos guards the goal for Lugano with an average rating of 7.17

Heinz Lindner is the goalkeeper for Zürich

Lugano has kept 12 clean sheets this season

Zürich has achieved only 2 clean sheets so far this season

Influences

The match takes place on natural grass at the Stadio di Cornaredo

An average of 2.6 goals per game were scored recently at this stadium

At home, Lugano scored 36 goals and conceded 20

Zürich has already conceded 36 goals in away games

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