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Lausanne Sport – Young Boys2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Lausanne Sport
1.66
Total xG
3.28
Young Boys
1.62
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Lausanne Sport | Young Boys |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.5 goals/match) | +1.00 | +1.00 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (4.8 goals/match) | +0.79 | |
| Rising form (4.8 vs 2.2 season average) | +0.79 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.22 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.5 season average) | −0.22 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.06 | |
| Nathan Butler-Oyedeji on the bench (4 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Beyatt Lekoueiry not in squad (4 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 27% of goal output missing (only 76% available) | ||
| Sandro Lauper on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Dominik Pech on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 29% of goal output missing (only 78% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.9 vs 1.5 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Tactical gap: Young Boys averaged 9.8 shots on target in recent matches, compared to Lausanne's 3.8
- Form-strong visitors: Young Boys currently average 4.8 goals per game, significantly higher than their season average of 2.2
- Key absences: Lausanne must cope without the unselected Nathan Butler-Oyedeji and Beyatt Lekoueiry
Risks
- Defensive vulnerability: Young Boys concede an average of 2.44 goals per away game
- Lausanne's scoring slump: The hosts have averaged only 0.8 goals in recent matches, well below their season average of 1.5
All probabilities
Result
Lausanne Sport38%
Draw26%
Young Boys36%
Double chance
Lausanne Sport or draw64%
Young Boys or draw62%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.564%
Under 2.536%
Over 3.541%
Under 3.559%
Both teams score
Yes66%
No34%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
2:1
8%
1:2
8%
2:2
7%
2:0
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Young Boys with Jaouen Hadjam: 4.2 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Young Boys: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Lausanne Sport: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- Lausanne Sport: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Young Boys: 72% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
Lineups
Lausanne Sport 4-3-3 · Young Boys 4-2-2-2
Lausanne Sport
- 90 M. Mastil
- 6 T. Bergvall
- 14 K. Mouanga
- 71 A. Sow
- 18 M. Poaty
- 2 B. Soppy
- 10 O. Custodio Da Costa
- 8 J. Roche
- 91 F. Mollet
- 80 S. Koné
- 78 O. Janneh Susso
Young Boys
- 1 M. Keller
- 27 L. Blum
- 5 G. Wüthrich
- 15 C. Zesiger
- 3 J. Hadjam
- 6 E. Fernandes
- 8 A. Gigovic
- 10 A. Antonio Sanches
- 29 K. Imeri
- 11 J. Monteiro
- 99 S. Essende
Substitutes
- 1 T. Castella
- 11 N. Butler-Oyedeji
- 17 S. Traore
- 3 T. Fredricson
- 51 I. Mendes
- 5 D. Ngonzo
- 48 E.Ozcan
- 49 I. Despotovic
- 22 I. Schmidt
- 18 J. Mall
- 13 D. Pech
- 30 S. Lauper
- 23 L. Benito
- 16 C. Fassnacht
- 25 F. Tsimba
- 33 S. Bukinac
- 34 E. Etoski
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