Super League
Luzern - Basel
02/22/2026, 03:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.6
3.0
1.4
1:1
12%2:1
9%1:2
8%2:0
6%2:2
6%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
42%
Draw
27%
Away Win
31%
Goals
Over 1.5
82%
Under 1.5
18%
Over 2.5
59%
Under 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
36%
Under 3.5
64%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
69%
Away or Draw
58%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
62%
No
38%
Key Factors
- Form contrast: Luzern is unbeaten in 5 games and shows a clear upward trend, while Basel has won only 1 of their last 5 matches
- Home spectacle: Luzern's home games are extremely high-scoring (avg 5.0 goals in the last 5), which suits their strong offense (1.92 season goals)
- Mathematical favorites: The analysis favors Luzern with a 42% win probability and 1.64 expected goals
Risk Factors
- Vulnerable home defense: Luzern concedes an average of 1.93 goals per game at home, one of the weakest records in the league
- Historical advantage for Basel: Basel has won 3 of the last 5 head-to-head matches and has historically often been the victor in this fixture
- Reduced offensive power for Basel: Due to absences, Basel has only about 65% of their usual goal-scoring threat available
Overview
Luzern (8th place, 30 points) hosts Basel (4th place, 40 points) at Sportplatz Chrüzmatt
Super League match on February 22, 2026, 4:30 PM
The home team aims to stay connected to the mid-table, while Basel looks to solidify its position among the top teams
Form
Luzern is unbeaten in their last five matches, showing strong form (DDDWW)
In the last five games, they have recorded 2 wins and 3 draws
Most recently, the team celebrated two consecutive wins
Basel, on the other hand, is in a form crisis (LLWLD)
From their last five matches, they managed only 1 win and 1 draw, with 3 losses
Statistics
Luzern has a strong offense, averaging 1.92 goals per game, but is defensively vulnerable with 1.88 goals conceded
Especially at home, Luzern scores frequently (1.86 goals) but is also susceptible (1.93 goals conceded)
Basel is more stable defensively (1.2 goals conceded per game) but scores fewer goals (1.48)
In 19 of Luzern's 25 league games, both teams scored, compared to 16 of 25 for Basel
Head-to-Head
In the last five head-to-head encounters, Basel has the upper hand
Basel won 3 of these matches, while Luzern recorded only 1 victory, and 1 game ended in a draw
The goal difference also favors the visitors at 10:5
The last meeting was won by Basel with a score of 2:1
Key Players
At Luzern, Matteo Di Giusto is the key player with 9 goals and 10 assists
He is supported by Lucas Manuel Silva Ferreira, who has contributed 7 goals this season
Julian Von Moos is also an important pillar in attack with 4 goals and 3 assists
Basel's offense is led by Xherdan Shaqiri, who has been directly involved in 20 goals (10 goals, 10 assists)
Dominik Schmid provides significant impetus from defense with 2 goals and 5 assists
Bénie Traoré has already scored 5 goals this season
Goalkeepers
Pascal Loretz will be in goal for Luzern
His team has kept 4 clean sheets this season
Mirko Salvi will be guarding the goal for Basel
His team has managed to keep a clean sheet 7 times this season
Influences
The Sportplatz Chrüzmatt has recently been a guarantee for spectacle
In the last five home games, there was an average of 5.0 goals per match
In all of these five games, both teams scored and there were always over 2.5 goals
Luzern will be playing on a grass pitch, which is their usual surface