Match report →
St. Gallen – Luzern2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
St. Gallen
1.81
Total xG
3.01
Luzern
1.20
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | St. Gallen | Luzern |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.74x league average) | −1.01 | |
| High-scoring league (3.5 goals/match) | +1.00 | +1.00 |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.18 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| Carlo Boukhalfa not in squad (12 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Tom Gaal not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 15% of goal output missing (only 86% available) | ||
| Tyron Owusu not in squad (1 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Andrej Vasovic not in squad (6 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Adrian Bajrami not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 13% of goal output missing (only 90% available) | ||
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Clear difference in form: St. Gallen won four of their last five competitive matches, while Luzern started the season with two consecutive losses
- Strong offensive output: St. Gallen proved highly dangerous recently, averaging 5.2 shots on target per game
- High probability rating: The mathematical analysis estimates a home win for St. Gallen at 50%
Risks
- Heavy schedule: St. Gallen has only 3 days of rest since their last match, while Luzern has a clear advantage with 7 days of recovery
- Historic struggles: St. Gallen failed to win any of the last five head-to-head encounters against Luzern
- Suspended regular starters: Luzern will miss key defensive and midfield elements Tyron Owusu and Bung Hua Freimann due to red card suspensions
All probabilities
Result
St. Gallen50%
Draw26%
Luzern24%
Double chance
St. Gallen or draw76%
Luzern or draw50%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.558%
Under 2.542%
Over 3.536%
Under 3.564%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
10%
2:0
8%
1:2
6%
3:1
6%
2:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- St. Gallen: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (5 of 8 total)
- St. Gallen: 94% of xG value comes in the second half (last 6 games with xG data)
- Luzern: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)
- St. Gallen: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes
- Luzern with Adrian Bajrami: 2.3 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
Lineups
St. Gallen 3-5-2 · Luzern 4-2-3-1
St. Gallen
- 1 L. Ati-Zigi
- 74 J. Ruiz
- 4 J. Stanic
- 36 C. Okoroji
- 28 H. Vandermersch
- 16 L. Görtler
- 10 L. Daschner
- 20 L. Frokaj
- 64 M. Stevanovic
- 7 C. Witzig
- 14 A. Balde
Luzern
- 1 S. Simoni
- 20 P. Dorn
- 13 B. Freimann
- 5 S. Knežević
- 22 R. Fernandes
- 6 L. Bertone
- 10 L. Silva Ferreira
- 16 O. Kabwit tshikomb
- 11 M. Di Giusto
- 14 A. Cigaņiks
- 71 S. Meyer
Substitutes
- 31 D. Besio
- 23 B. Fazliji
- 63 C. Konietzke
- 25 L. Watkowiak
- 47 E. Owusu
- 9 A. Hunziker
- 3 C. Kleine-Bekel
- 68 M. Heydari
- 21 L. Lüthi
- 80 Mio Zimmermann
- 34 D. Xhemalija
- 27 V. Villiger
- 3 J. Löfgren
- 19 D. Mikołajewski
- 7 A. Oehlers
- 63 R. Radtke
- 15 N. Toggenburg
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →