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Super League

St. Gallen - Luzern

08/09/2026, 02:30 PM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
St. Gallen
1.8
Total xG
3.0
Luzern
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

10%

2:0

8%

1:2

6%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
SGLUZ

St. Gallen

Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.18
Carlo Boukhalfa not in squad (12 goals, 3 assists)
Tom Gaal not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
15% of goal output missing (only 86% available)
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)

Luzern

Attack weakness (0.74x league average)
-1.01
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.11
Tyron Owusu not in squad (1 goals, 6 assists)
Andrej Vasovic not in squad (6 goals, 1 assists)
Adrian Bajrami not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
13% of goal output missing (only 90% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.5 goals/match)
+1.00
+1.00
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    St. Gallen: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (5 of 8 total)

  • 2
    St. Gallen: 94% of xG value comes in the second half (last 6 games with xG data)

  • 3
    Luzern: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)

  • 4
    St. Gallen: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes

  • 5
    Luzern with Adrian Bajrami: 2.3 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

50%

Draw

26%

Away Win

24%

Goals

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

58%

Under 2.5

42%

Over 3.5

36%

Under 3.5

64%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

76%

Away or Draw

50%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

60%

No

40%

Key Factors
  • Clear difference in form: St. Gallen won four of their last five competitive matches, while Luzern started the season with two consecutive losses
  • Strong offensive output: St. Gallen proved highly dangerous recently, averaging 5.2 shots on target per game
  • High probability rating: The mathematical analysis estimates a home win for St. Gallen at 50%
Risk Factors
  • Heavy schedule: St. Gallen has only 3 days of rest since their last match, while Luzern has a clear advantage with 7 days of recovery
  • Historic struggles: St. Gallen failed to win any of the last five head-to-head encounters against Luzern
  • Suspended regular starters: Luzern will miss key defensive and midfield elements Tyron Owusu and Bung Hua Freimann due to red card suspensions
Overview

St. Gallen host Luzern at the Kybunpark

Super League match on August 9, 2026, 4:30 PM

St. Gallen currently sit in 3rd place with 6 points

Luzern are at the bottom of the table in 12th place with 0 points

St. Gallen enter the match as favorites

Form

St. Gallen show strong form with the string WWLWW

Most recently, they secured a 3-1 win against Sheriff

Luzern are struggling with the form DWWLL and two consecutive losses

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

St. Gallen score an average of 1.89 goals per season match

In home games, St. Gallen's scoring average rises to 1.94 goals

Luzern score an average of 2.00 goals per game

Luzern's defense concedes an average of 1.65 goals in away matches

Head-to-Head

Luzern has been historically dominant in the last 5 head-to-head matches

Luzern achieved 2 wins while St. Gallen could not win a single game

There were also 3 draws between the sides

The last direct encounter ended in a 2-2 draw on April 12, 2026

Key Players

Lukas Görtler shines in midfield with 9 goals and 8 assists this season

Aliou Baldé poses a major threat upfront with 11 season goals

Matteo Di Giusto leads Luzern with an outstanding 12 goals and 12 assists

Oscar Kabwit is another key asset with 11 goals and 5 assists

Goalkeepers

Lawrence Ati Zigi played 35 times for St. Gallen this season, keeping 8 clean sheets

Simon Simoni guards the net for Luzern, who recorded 7 clean sheets overall this season

Influences

St. Gallen play on natural grass at the Kybunpark

St. Gallen's home record shows a solid output of 1.94 goals scored per home game

At the Kybunpark, matches have recently averaged 3.2 goals per game

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