Match report →
Servette – Grasshopper2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Servette
2.29
Total xG
3.12
Grasshopper
0.84
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Servette | Grasshopper |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.53x league average) | −1.56 | |
| Attack strength (1.4x league average) | +1.11 | |
| High-scoring league (3.5 goals/match) | +1.00 | +1.00 |
| Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.21 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.16 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.16 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 2 league avg) | +0.03 | |
| Junior Kadile not in squad (6 goals, 10 assists) | ||
| Lilian Njoh on the bench (1 goals, 9 assists) | ||
| David Douline on the bench (4 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Thomas Lopes not in squad (4 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Lamine Fomba on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 35% of goal output missing (only 58% available) |
Key factors
- Matchup advantage: Servette's home offense (1.85 goals) meets a fragile away defense (2.35 goals conceded)
- Tactical dominance: Servette averaged 6.2 shots on target in recent matches
- Historical dominance: Servette won 4 of the last 5 head-to-head encounters against Grasshopper
Risks
- Squad limitation: Grasshopper currently only have 58% of their usual starting XI strength available
- Away vulnerability: Grasshopper concede an average of 2.35 goals per away match
- Form crisis: Servette remain with 0 points after the first two league matches
All probabilities
Result
Servette69%
Draw20%
Grasshopper11%
Double chance
Servette or draw89%
Grasshopper or draw31%
No draw80%
Goals
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.560%
Under 2.540%
Over 3.538%
Under 3.562%
Both teams score
Yes52%
No48%
Most likely scores
2:0
11%
2:1
10%
1:1
10%
3:0
9%
3:1
7%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Servette: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- Servette with Junior Kadile: 2.3 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Grasshopper with Amir Abrashi: 1 goals/game. Without: 3 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Grasshopper: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- Servette: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
Lineups
Servette 4-4-2 · Grasshopper 4-1-3-2
Servette
- 1 E. Gertmonas
- 23 Q. Maceiras
- 4 S. Rouiller
- 15 M. Burch
- 18 B. Mazikou
- 9 M. Stevanović
- 6 P. Naressi Machado
- 8 T. Cognat
- 77 T. Ouattara
- 90 S. Mráz
- 97 F. Aye
Grasshopper
- 71 J. Hammel
- 28 S. Stroscio
- 15 A. Diaby
- 4 L. Mikulić
- 57 N. Rissi
- 8 T. Meyer
- 5 H. Imourane
- 6 A. Abrashi
- 17 S. Krasniqi
- 9 N. Muci
- 60 S. Bengondo
Substitutes
- 81 J. Vonmoos
- 28 D. Douline
- 11 L. Fomba
- 34 T. Allix
- 14 L. Njoh
- 22 M. Lambourde
- 35 A. Vincent
- 17 H. Mendes
- 78 L. Besson
- 22 P. Cretì
- 51 L. Giandomenico
- 58 Y. Bettkober
- 73 D. Paloschi
- 23 S. Marques
- 10 Ó. Clemente Mues
- 56 D. Sahin
- 1 M. Hübel
- 14 A. Conateh
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