Match report →
Sion – Vaduz3 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Sion
1.85
Total xG
3.30
Vaduz
1.45
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Sion | Vaduz |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.57x league average) | −1.36 | |
| High-scoring league (3.5 goals/match) | +1.00 | +1.00 |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.88 | |
| Attack strength (1.43x league average) | +0.37 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.36 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.23 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.23 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.14 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.9 season average) | +0.14 | |
| Ilyas Chouaref on the bench (9 goals, 8 assists) | ||
| Winsley Boteli on the bench (8 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Nias Hefti on the bench (0 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Ali Kabacalman on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Franck Surdez on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 27% of goal output missing (only 65% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Sion recently averaged 18.4 total shots and 6.8 shots on target with 56.6% possession
- The mathematical model predicts a 46% home win probability and expects 1.85 goals for Sion
- Both teams are scoring more than their season average: Sion recently scored 2.4 goals (season average 1.9), Vaduz 2.0 goals (season average 1.3)
Risks
- Sion is missing key players like Ilyas Chouaref and Winsley Boteli, leaving only 66% of the usual starting XI strength available
- Both teams face a short recovery period of only 3 days since their last competitive match
- Vaduz concedes an average of 2.0 goals away with limited data available on away player statistics
All probabilities
Result
Sion46%
Draw25%
Vaduz29%
Double chance
Sion or draw71%
Vaduz or draw54%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.564%
Under 2.536%
Over 3.542%
Under 3.558%
Both teams score
Yes66%
No34%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
2:1
9%
1:2
7%
2:2
7%
2:0
6%
3:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Sion: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Sion 4-4-2 · Vaduz 4-3-1-2
Sion
- 1 A. Racioppi
- 14 N. Lavanchy
- 5 N. Sow
- 17 J. Kronig
- 6 M. Cipriano
- 29 T. Berdayes
- 37 F. Sylla
- 8 B. Costa Rodrigues de Oliveira
- 77 D. Rrudhani
- 33 R. Nivokazi
- 9 J. Lukembila
Vaduz
- 25 L. Schaffran
- 4 N. Hasler
- 6 D. Simani
- 5 L. Berisha
- 29 M. Sawadogo
- 17 J. Stark
- 20 L. Mack
- 10 J. Cabrera
- 11 L. Dalipi
- 39 D. Sorgić
- 9 M. Michael Monsberger
Substitutes
- 7 I. Chouaref
- 22 A. Llukes
- 12 F. Ruberto
- 88 A. Kabacalman
- 20 N. Hefti
- 21 L. Chipperfield
- 13 W. Boteli
- 19 F. Surdez
- 38 R. Kessler
- 27 N. Lang
- 7 D. Schwizer
- 14 M. Beeli
- 1 B. Büchel
- 23 M. Hammerich
- 28 M. Cocic
- 19 D. Djokic
- 30 M. Walker
- 18 D. Kasper
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →