Match report →
Basel – Thun4 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Basel
1.97
Total xG
3.08
Thun
1.11
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Basel | Thun |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.5 goals/match) | +1.00 | +1.00 |
| Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.9 league avg) | −0.45 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.30 | |
| Declining form (0.4 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.30 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | +0.03 | |
| Xherdan Shaqiri on the bench (11 goals, 10 assists) | ||
| Nicolas Vouilloz on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Metinho on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Julien Duranville not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 82% of goal output missing (only 15% available) | ||
| Valmir Matoshi on the bench (6 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Michael Heule on the bench (2 goals, 7 assists) | ||
| Brighton Labeau on the bench (3 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Justin Roth on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 43% of goal output missing (only 63% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.9 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Only 15% of goal threat available, without Xherdan Shaqiri, Nicolas Vouilloz, Metinho, Julien Duranville
- Basel averaged only 3.6 shots on target in recent matches
- Mathematical advantage with a 56% home win probability and 1.97 expected goals for Basel
Risks
- Valmir Matoshi, Michael Heule, Brighton Labeau, Justin Roth missing, only 63% of goal threat available
- Thun with only 3 days of rest since their last match
All probabilities
Result
Basel56%
Draw24%
Thun20%
Double chance
Basel or draw80%
Thun or draw44%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.559%
Under 2.541%
Over 3.537%
Under 3.563%
Both teams score
Yes59%
No41%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
3:1
7%
3:0
6%
4:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Basel with Moussa Cissé: 0.2 goals/game. Without: 1.7 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
- Basel: 73% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- Basel: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Thun: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Thun with Marc Gutbub: 1 goals/game. Without: 2.5 goals/game (4 of 6 games)
Lineups
Basel 4-3-3 · Thun 4-4-2
Basel
- 13 M. Salvi
- 6 K. Tsunemoto
- 24 F. Daniliuc
- 55 A. Victory Maduabuchukwu
- 29 M. Cisse
- 22 L. Leroy
- 4 B. Omeragic
- 8 L. Malachowski Thorell
- 18 A. Sow
- 9 Ž. Celar
- 11 K. Olaigbe
Thun
- 1 N. Steffen
- 37 L. Dähler
- 5 N. Bürgy
- 19 J. Bamert
- 47 F. Fehr
- 70 N. Reichmuth
- 8 F. Saiz Pennarossa
- 13 N. Zoukit
- 21 D. Derbaci
- 11 L. Stewart
- 80 S. Lengen
Substitutes
- 10 X. Shaqiri
- 5 A. Silu
- 3 N. Vouilloz
- 14 A. Bačanin
- 23 A. Ajeti
- 7 P. Otele
- 44 J. Harder
- 37 G. Koloto
- 49 R. Widmer D’Autilia
- 27 M. Heule
- 96 B. Labeau Melchior
- 78 V. Matoshi
- 16 J. Roth
- 17 A. Balaruban
- 33 M. Gutbub
- 25 T. Spycher
- 52 A. Ilic
- 30 N. Maier
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