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Super League

Basel - Thun

08/09/2026, 02:30 PM

4 : 2
Expected Goals
Basel
2.0
Total xG
3.1
Thun
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

2:1

10%

2:0

9%

3:1

7%

3:0

6%
What influences the xG?
BASTHU

Basel

5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.30
Declining form (0.4 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.30
Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
+0.03
Xherdan Shaqiri   on the bench (11 goals, 10 assists)
Nicolas Vouilloz on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Metinho  on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
Julien Duranville not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
82% of goal output missing (only 15% available)
Strong home record (1.9 vs 1.4 goals/match)

Thun

Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
-0.45
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.10
Valmir Matoshi on the bench (6 goals, 4 assists)
Michael Heule on the bench (2 goals, 7 assists)
Brighton Labeau on the bench (3 goals, 4 assists)
Justin Roth on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
43% of goal output missing (only 63% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.5 goals/match)
+1.00
+1.00
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Basel with Moussa Cissé: 0.2 goals/game. Without: 1.7 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Basel: 73% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 3
    Basel: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    Thun: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    Thun with Marc Gutbub: 1 goals/game. Without: 2.5 goals/game (4 of 6 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

56%

Draw

24%

Away Win

20%

Goals

Over 1.5

83%

Under 1.5

17%

Over 2.5

59%

Under 2.5

41%

Over 3.5

37%

Under 3.5

63%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

80%

Away or Draw

44%

No Draw

76%

Both Score

Yes

59%

No

41%

Key Factors
  • Only 15% of goal threat available, without Xherdan Shaqiri, Nicolas Vouilloz, Metinho, Julien Duranville
  • Basel averaged only 3.6 shots on target in recent matches
  • Mathematical advantage with a 56% home win probability and 1.97 expected goals for Basel
Risk Factors
  • Valmir Matoshi, Michael Heule, Brighton Labeau, Justin Roth missing, only 63% of goal threat available
  • Thun with only 3 days of rest since their last match
Overview

Basel hosts Thun at the St. Jakob-Park

Super League match on August 9, 2026, 4:30 PM

Basel sits in 7th place with 3 points, Thun follows in 9th place with 3 points

The model predicts a home win probability of 56%

Form

Basel has a form of LLLWL with 1 win and 4 losses in recent matches

Thun's form stands at DWLLW with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Basel's goal production is stalling at 0.4 goals per game compared to their season average of 1.4

Thun's goal-scoring is also slightly below their season average, down from 2.1 to 1.8 in recent games

Statistics

Basel scores an average of 1.45 goals and concedes 1.53 goals per game this season

Thun features a strong offense with an average of 2.11 goals scored while conceding 1.37 goals per game

Basel is defensively more stable at the St. Jakob-Park, conceding an average of 1.05 goals at home

Thun scores an average of 2.06 goals per away game while conceding 1.35 goals

Head-to-Head

4 head-to-head matches in history

Both teams have won 2 matches each

There has been no draw between the two teams so far

The last meeting ended in a 3:1 home victory for Basel

Key Players

Keigo Tsunemoto has recorded 1 goal and 1 assist this season with an average rating of 6.92

Léo Leroy stands at 1 goal and 1 assist this term with a rating of 6.88

Flavius Daniliuc has scored 2 goals so far this season with an average rating of 7.00

Fabio Fehr contributed 2 goals and 7 assists this season with a rating of 6.97

Nils Reichmuth shines this term with 4 goals and 3 assists with a rating of 6.86

Jan Bamert has 1 goal and 1 assist this season with an average rating of 6.97

Goalkeepers

Mirko Salvi has an average rating of 6.58 in 5 appearances this season

Basel has achieved 9 clean sheets this season, including 5 in their home stadium

Niklas Steffen has 36 appearances with a rating of 6.89

Thun has recorded 6 clean sheets in total this season, with 4 of them coming in away matches

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at the St. Jakob-Park

In this stadium, recent matches have averaged 3.4 goals per game

The rates for over 2.5 goals and both teams to score historically stand at 60% in this venue

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