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Super League

Young Boys - Vaduz

08/23/2026, 12:00 PM

4 : 2
Expected Goals
Young Boys
2.0
Total xG
3.3
Vaduz
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

2:1

10%

2:0

7%

3:1

6%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
YBVAD

Young Boys

5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (4.6 goals/match)
+0.73
Rising form (4.6 vs 2.2 season average)
+0.73
Attack strength (1.27x league average)
+0.17
Edimilson Fernandes not in squad (2 goals, 7 assists)
Jaouen Hadjam on the bench (2 goals, 4 assists)
Sandro Lauper on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists)
25% of goal output missing (only 66% available)

Vaduz

4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.12
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.12
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
+0.03
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (3.6 goals/match)
+1.15
+1.15
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Young Boys: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 2
    Vaduz: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 3
    Young Boys: 71% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 4
    Young Boys: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 5
    Young Boys: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

53%

Draw

24%

Away Win

23%

Goals

Over 1.5

86%

Under 1.5

14%

Over 2.5

65%

Under 2.5

35%

Over 3.5

43%

Under 3.5

57%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

77%

Away or Draw

47%

No Draw

76%

Both Score

Yes

65%

No

35%

Key Factors
  • Tactical dominance: Young Boys averaged 9.4 shots on target and 20.8 total shots in recent matches
  • Strong offensive trend: Young Boys scored an average of 4.6 goals in recent games, significantly higher than their season average of 2.2
  • Mathematical prediction: The model calculates a 53% probability of a home win and predicts 2.02 expected goals for the hosts
Risk Factors
  • Edimilson Fernandes, Jaouen Hadjam, and Sandro Lauper are missing, leaving only 67% of the usual starting lineup strength available
  • Limited data availability for historical head-to-head matches
Overview

Young Boys (3rd place, 7 points) host bottom-of-the-table Vaduz (12th place, 0 points) at the Stadion Wankdorf

Super League match on August 23, 2026, 2:00 PM

The hosts enter as clear favorites against the visitors who are yet to score a point

Form

Young Boys are unbeaten in their last 5 matches with 3 wins and 2 draws (Form: WDWWD)

Vaduz travel with a record of 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses (Form: WLLLD)

The home side shows a stable and positive trend

Statistics

Young Boys score an average of 2.11 goals per game and concede 1.82

Vaduz average 2.25 goals scored and 1.0 goals conceded

At home, Young Boys score an average of 2.15 goals and concede 1.25

Key Players

Samuel Essende is in outstanding form with 8 goals and 2 assists in his last 5 appearances

Alvyn Sanches has contributed 10 goals and 6 assists this season with a 7.42 rating

Dominik Pech has recently scored 2 goals in 5 games

Goalkeepers

Marvin Keller plays in goal for Young Boys, keeping 8 clean sheets this season

Leon Schaffran starts for Vaduz, whose team has kept 2 clean sheets so far

Influences

Stadion Wankdorf is known for high-scoring games, averaging 4.0 goals per match

The both teams to score rate at this venue stands at a high 80%

Young Boys benefit from home advantage with only 1.25 goals conceded per game on average

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