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Grasshopper – Sion2 : 5
Why the model thinks so
Grasshopper
1.95
Total xG
3.70
Sion
1.75
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Grasshopper | Sion |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.7 goals/match) | +1.21 | +1.21 |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.49 | |
| Defensive strength (2 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | +0.16 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.12 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.09 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.08 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.08 | |
| Nikolas Muci on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Samuele Bengondo on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 11% of goal output missing (only 84% available) | ||
| Strong home record (2.5 vs 1.3 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form & offense: Sion enter with a 3-game winning streak and currently score more frequently (2.4) than their season average (2.0)
- Tactics: Sion recently averaged 6.0 shots on target per game, demonstrating strong offensive quality
- H2H dominance: Sion won 4 of the last 5 duels against Grasshopper, including a clear 4-0 away victory in their last encounter
Risks
- Grasshopper's defensive vulnerability, conceding an average of 1.95 goals per game this season
- Limited recovery time for both squads with only 3 days of rest since their last league match
- Missing offensive options for the hosts as Nikolas Muci and Samuele Bengondo are not in the squad
All probabilities
Result
Grasshopper42%
Draw24%
Sion34%
Double chance
Grasshopper or draw66%
Sion or draw58%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.590%
Under 1.511%
Over 2.572%
Under 2.528%
Over 3.551%
Under 3.549%
Both teams score
Yes72%
No28%
Most likely scores
2:1
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
7%
3:1
5%
3:2
5%
2:5
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Sion: 12 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Grasshopper: 37% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (7 of 19)
- Grasshopper: dropped a lead in 5 of 9 games (15 points lost)
- Grasshopper: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Sion: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Grasshopper 4-3-3 · Sion 4-2-3-1
Grasshopper
- 1 M. Hübel
- 28 S. Stroscio
- 58 Y. Bettkober
- 44 B. Pllana
- 34 A. Arigoni
- 10 Ó. Clemente Mues
- 66 M. Gibelalde Mujika
- 6 A. Abrashi
- 11 G. Morandi
- 18 Y. Lee
- 17 S. Krasniqi
Sion
- 1 A. Racioppi
- 14 N. Lavanchy
- 5 N. Sow
- 17 J. Kronig
- 6 M. Cipriano
- 88 A. Kabacalman
- 8 B. Costa Rodrigues de Oliveira
- 7 I. Chouaref
- 77 D. Rrudhani
- 19 F. Surdez
- 13 W. Boteli
Substitutes
- 9 N. Muci
- 71 J. Hammel
- 23 S. Marques
- 24 K. Goudmijn
- 57 N. Rissi
- 4 L. Mikulić
- 60 S. Bengondo
- 55 D.Papic
- 20 D. Ferrazza
- 9 J. Lukembila
- 29 T. Berdayes
- 12 F. Ruberto
- 20 N. Hefti
- 10 B. Kololli
- 21 L. Chipperfield
- 33 R. Nivokazi
- 37 F. Sylla
- 55 L. Villa
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