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Super League

Lugano - St. Gallen

09/16/2026, 05:00 PM

4 : 1
Expected Goals
Lugano
1.7
Total xG
3.3
St. Gallen
1.6
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:2

7%

2:0

5%
What influences the xG?
LUGSG

Lugano

Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.67
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
+0.19
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.01
Dereck Moncada on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)
Renato Steffen not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
15% of goal output missing (only 79% available)

St. Gallen

Attack weakness (0.67x league average)
-1.12
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.77
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.17
Declining form (1.4 vs 2 season average)
-0.17
Lukas Görtler not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
14% of goal output missing (only 77% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match)
+1.28
+1.28
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Lugano: 5 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (83% win rate)

  • 2
    Lugano: 3 comebacks in 3 games after trailing past minute 75 (3 points rescued)

  • 3
    St. Gallen: 6 of 17 goals scored by substitutes (last 11 games)

  • 4
    Lugano: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 5
    St. Gallen: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 6
    Lugano: 9 of 26 goals scored by substitutes (last 9 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

39%

Draw

26%

Away Win

35%

Goals

Over 1.5

85%

Under 1.5

15%

Over 2.5

63%

Under 2.5

37%

Over 3.5

41%

Under 3.5

59%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

65%

Away or Draw

61%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

66%

No

34%

Key Factors
  • League leadership and strong form: Lugano is the unbeaten league leader with a form of DWWWD, whereas St. Gallen lost four of their last five matches
  • Tactical offensive presence: St. Gallen averaged 6.2 shots on target in recent matches
  • Mathematical goal prediction: The model calculates an 85% probability for a match with at least two goals (Over 1.5)
Risk Factors
  • Historical disadvantage: Lugano has been waiting for a win against St. Gallen for 5 head-to-head matches
  • Squad limitations: Lugano is missing K. Behrens, Dereck Moncada, and Renato Steffen due to injuries or non-nomination
  • Midfield absence: St. Gallen has to play without the injured midfielder L. Görtler
Overview

Lugano (1st place, 19 points) host St. Gallen (5th place, 10 points) at the Stadio di Cornaredo

Super League match on September 16, 2026, 7:00 PM

Top of the table meets midfield in direct confrontation

Form

Lugano remains unbeaten in five matches with a form of DWWWD

The home side collected three wins and two draws during this run

St. Gallen travels with a form of LLLWL

The visitors lost four of their last five matches

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Lugano scored an average of 1.55 goals per game this season

The home defensive record shines with only 0.87 goals conceded per match

St. Gallen averages 1.89 goals per game in the league

Away from home, the visitors conceded only 24 goals in 21 matches, averaging 1.14

Head-to-Head

There have been 5 head-to-head matches recently

St. Gallen leads the statistics with 3 wins and 2 draws

Lugano is yet to win a direct encounter in this timeframe

The last match ended in a 2-1 away victory for St. Gallen on May 10, 2026

Key Players

Anto Grgic recorded 4 assists this season and holds a 7.65 rating

Yanis Cimignani already scored 3 goals in 7 appearances

Aliou Baldé contributed 2 goals and one assist with a 7.19 rating

Goalkeepers

Felix Gebhardt starts in goal for Lugano

Lawrence Ati Zigi guards the net for St. Gallen with a rating of 6.86

The home side kept 12 clean sheets this season, while the visitors recorded 8

Influences

The match is played on natural grass at the Stadio di Cornaredo

An average of 3.0 goals were scored in past home matches here

The rate of matches ending with over 2.5 goals is 60% at this venue

Both teams scored in 40% of the games at this location

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