Match report →
Lugano – St. Gallen4 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Lugano
1.68
Total xG
3.27
St. Gallen
1.58
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Lugano | St. Gallen |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.28 | +1.28 |
| Attack weakness (0.67x league average) | −1.12 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.77 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.67 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.19 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.17 | |
| Declining form (1.4 vs 2 season average) | −0.17 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Dereck Moncada on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Renato Steffen not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 15% of goal output missing (only 79% available) | ||
| Lukas Görtler not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 14% of goal output missing (only 77% available) |
Key factors
- League leadership and strong form: Lugano is the unbeaten league leader with a form of DWWWD, whereas St. Gallen lost four of their last five matches
- Tactical offensive presence: St. Gallen averaged 6.2 shots on target in recent matches
- Mathematical goal prediction: The model calculates an 85% probability for a match with at least two goals (Over 1.5)
Risks
- Historical disadvantage: Lugano has been waiting for a win against St. Gallen for 5 head-to-head matches
- Squad limitations: Lugano is missing K. Behrens, Dereck Moncada, and Renato Steffen due to injuries or non-nomination
- Midfield absence: St. Gallen has to play without the injured midfielder L. Görtler
All probabilities
Result
Lugano39%
Draw26%
St. Gallen35%
Double chance
Lugano or draw65%
St. Gallen or draw61%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.563%
Under 2.537%
Over 3.541%
Under 3.559%
Both teams score
Yes66%
No34%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:2
7%
2:0
5%
4:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Lugano: 5 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (83% win rate)
- Lugano: 3 comebacks in 3 games after trailing past minute 75 (3 points rescued)
- St. Gallen: 6 of 17 goals scored by substitutes (last 11 games)
- Lugano: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- St. Gallen: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Lugano: 9 of 26 goals scored by substitutes (last 9 games)
Lineups
Lugano 3-5-2 · St. Gallen 3-1-4-2
Lugano
- 28 F. Gebhardt
- 6 A. Papadopoulos
- 17 L. Mai
- 18 J. Bichsel
- 2 B. Karimov
- 25 U. Bislimi
- 8 A. Grgic
- 27 D. dos Santos Correia
- 21 Y. Cimignani
- 22 B. Castro Espinosa
- 24 E. Pihlström
St. Gallen
- 1 L. Ati-Zigi
- 3 C. Kleine-Bekel
- 4 J. Stanic
- 36 C. Okoroji
- 10 L. Daschner
- 74 J. Ruiz
- 64 M. Stevanovic
- 11 C. Boukhalfa
- 7 C. Witzig
- 70 N. Scherrer
- 14 A. Balde
Substitutes
- 9 A. Ajeti
- 7 E. Alioski
- 4 D. Kelvin
- 14 A. Kendouci
- 46 M. Zanotti
- 3 H. Delcroix
- 30 D. Moncada
- 23 G. Ajdin
- 39 C. Bamba Ndiaye
- 31 D. Besio
- 28 H. Vandermersch
- 23 B. Fazliji
- 25 L. Watkowiak
- 26 T. Gaal
- 47 E. Owusu
- 9 A. Hunziker
- 68 M. Heydari
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