Match report →
Thun – Servette2 : 4
Why the model thinks so
Thun
1.48
Total xG
3.29
Servette
1.81
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Thun | Servette |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.28 | +1.28 |
| Attack weakness (0.6x league average) | −1.13 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.76 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.9 league avg) | −0.29 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.25 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.6 season average) | −0.25 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.14 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.13 | |
| Furkan Dursun on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Timothé Cognat on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) |
Key factors
- Historical dominance: Thun won all 3 previous head-to-head encounters against Servette
- Servette's offensive struggles: Advanced stats show Servette's goal production stalling at 0.8 goals per game recently compared to their season average of 1.64
- Balanced tactical metrics: Servette averaged 4.4 shots on target with 51% possession in recent matches, while Thun averaged 3.4 shots on target with 48% possession
Risks
- Key absence: Timothé Cognat is injured for Servette, leaving the team with only 80% of their usual starting XI strength
- Fatigue factor: Servette enter this fixture with only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Defensive leaks: Servette concede an average of 1.89 goals per away game
All probabilities
Result
Thun31%
Draw25%
Servette44%
Double chance
Thun or draw56%
Servette or draw69%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.564%
Under 2.536%
Over 3.542%
Under 3.558%
Both teams score
Yes66%
No34%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
1:2
9%
2:1
7%
2:2
7%
0:2
6%
2:4
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Thun: 9 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Thun: dropped a lead in 4 of 7 games (11 points lost)
- Thun: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)
Lineups
Thun 4-4-2 · Servette 4-1-4-1
Thun
- 1 N. Steffen
- 47 F. Fehr
- 5 N. Bürgy
- 19 J. Bamert
- 18 T. Strannegard
- 70 N. Reichmuth
- 16 J. Roth
- 13 N. Zoukit
- 8 F. Saiz Pennarossa
- 96 B. Labeau Melchior
- 26 N. Christoffersson
Servette
- 1 E. Gertmonas
- 17 H. Mendes
- 34 T. Allix
- 15 M. Burch
- 18 B. Mazikou
- 28 D. Douline
- 22 M. Lambourde
- 9 M. Stevanović
- 20 J. Simo
- 14 L. Njoh
- 7 K. Mutandwa
Substitutes
- 37 L. Dähler
- 14 M. Käit
- 25 T. Spycher
- 2 O. Mambwa
- 15 P. Kristal
- 30 N. Maier
- 9 F. Dursun
- 54 L. Passavant
- 80 S. Lengen
- 21 J. Karlsson
- 23 Q. Maceiras
- 36 T. Lopes
- 27 D. Fofana
- 44 L.Rieder
- 37 S. Djoho
- 41 T.Nunez
- 42 I. Izquierdo
- 39 Eronis Haxhiu
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