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Super League

St. Gallen - Thun

08/30/2026, 02:30 PM

3 : 4
Expected Goals
St. Gallen
2.5
Total xG
3.8
Thun
1.2
Most Likely Scores

2:1

9%

3:1

8%

3:0

6%

2:2

6%

4:1

5%
What influences the xG?
SGTHU

St. Gallen

Attack strength (1.24x league average)
+0.78
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 2 league avg)
-0.58
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.11
Full strength squad available

Thun

Attack weakness (0.75x league average)
-0.88
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.08
Valmir Matoshi not in squad (6 goals, 4 assists)
Michael Heule not in squad (2 goals, 7 assists)

League

High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match)
+1.33
+1.33
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    St. Gallen: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Thun: dropped a lead in 5 of 7 games (13 points lost)

  • 3
    St. Gallen: 3.2 cards per game (33 yellows, 2 reds in 11 games)

  • 4
    Thun: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 5
    St. Gallen: 72% of all goals in the second half (18 of 25, last 12 games)

  • 6
    Thun: 63% of all goals in the first half (12 of 19, last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

65%

Draw

19%

Away Win

16%

Goals

Over 1.5

90%

Under 1.5

10%

Over 2.5

72%

Under 2.5

28%

Over 3.5

52%

Under 3.5

48%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

84%

Away or Draw

35%

No Draw

81%

Both Score

Yes

66%

No

34%

Key Factors
  • Mathematical dominance: The prediction model calculates a 65% home win probability and 2.54 expected goals for St. Gallen
  • Tactical superiority: St. Gallen recently dominated possession with 57% ball possession and averaged 7.8 shots on target per match
  • Opponent's defensive instability: Thun's form trend is negative, having conceded an average of 3.2 goals in recent matches
Risk Factors
  • High workload: Both teams enter the match with a short recovery period of only 3 days of rest since their last competitive fixture
  • Squad depletion for Thun: Key players Valmir Matoshi (6 goals, 4 assists) and Michael Heule (2 goals, 7 assists) are missing from the lineup
Overview

St. Gallen (4th place, 7 points) host Thun (10th place, 3 points) at Kybunpark

Super League match on August 30, 2026, 4:30 PM

Matchup with a clear favorite role for the home team

Form

St. Gallen holds a current form of WDWLL

Recently recording 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

Thun enters the match with a form of WLLLD

1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses show a downward trend

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

St. Gallen averages 1.89 goals scored and 1.24 goals conceded per game

At home their average goals scored rises to 1.94

Thun scores an average of 2.11 goals while conceding 1.37 per match

Away from home Thun averages 2.06 goals scored and 1.35 goals conceded

Head-to-Head

Balanced historical record from 4 head-to-head matches

Both St. Gallen and Thun registered 1 win each along with 2 draws

Goal ratio stands at 6:5 in favor of St. Gallen

The last direct encounter ended in a 1:1 draw on May 17, 2026

Key Players

Lukas Görtler has 9 goals and 8 assists, while Aliou Baldé contributed 11 goals this season

Christian Witzig registered 4 goals and 4 assists so far

Fabio Fehr recorded 2 goals and 7 assists

Nils Reichmuth has 4 goals, and Brighton Labeau is on 3 goals and 4 assists

Valmir Matoshi and Michael Heule are not nominated

Goalkeepers

Lawrence Ati Zigi plays in goal for St. Gallen with a season rating of 7.00

Niklas Steffen guards the goal for Thun with an average rating of 6.89

Zigi kept 8 clean sheets this season, while Steffen managed 6 clean sheets

Influences

The match is played on natural grass at Kybunpark

Historical stadium statistics show high-scoring games with an average of 4.2 goals

Both teams scored with over 2.5 goals in all 5 analyzed home matches

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