Match report →
St. Gallen – Thun3 : 4
Why the model thinks so
St. Gallen
2.54
Total xG
3.76
Thun
1.22
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | St. Gallen | Thun |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.33 | +1.33 |
| Attack weakness (0.75x league average) | −0.88 | |
| Attack strength (1.24x league average) | +0.78 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 2 league avg) | −0.58 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.11 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.08 | |
| Valmir Matoshi not in squad (6 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Michael Heule not in squad (2 goals, 7 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Mathematical dominance: The prediction model calculates a 65% home win probability and 2.54 expected goals for St. Gallen
- Tactical superiority: St. Gallen recently dominated possession with 57% ball possession and averaged 7.8 shots on target per match
- Opponent's defensive instability: Thun's form trend is negative, having conceded an average of 3.2 goals in recent matches
Risks
- High workload: Both teams enter the match with a short recovery period of only 3 days of rest since their last competitive fixture
- Squad depletion for Thun: Key players Valmir Matoshi (6 goals, 4 assists) and Michael Heule (2 goals, 7 assists) are missing from the lineup
All probabilities
Result
St. Gallen65%
Draw19%
Thun16%
Goals
Over 1.590%
Under 1.510%
Over 2.572%
Under 2.528%
Over 3.552%
Under 3.548%
Double chance
St. Gallen or draw84%
Thun or draw35%
No draw81%
Both teams score
Yes66%
No34%
Most likely scores
2:1
9%
3:1
8%
3:0
6%
2:2
6%
4:1
5%
3:4
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- St. Gallen: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Thun: dropped a lead in 5 of 7 games (13 points lost)
- St. Gallen: 3.2 cards per game (33 yellows, 2 reds in 11 games)
- Thun: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- St. Gallen: 72% of all goals in the second half (18 of 25, last 12 games)
- Thun: 63% of all goals in the first half (12 of 19, last 12 games)
Lineups
St. Gallen 3-1-4-2 · Thun 4-4-2
St. Gallen
- 1 L. Ati-Zigi
- 74 J. Ruiz
- 4 J. Stanic
- 36 C. Okoroji
- 64 M. Stevanovic
- 28 H. Vandermersch
- 16 L. Görtler
- 10 L. Daschner
- 7 C. Witzig
- 31 D. Besio
- 14 A. Balde
Thun
- 1 N. Steffen
- 47 F. Fehr
- 19 J. Bamert
- 5 N. Bürgy
- 23 M. Bürki
- 70 N. Reichmuth
- 8 F. Saiz Pennarossa
- 16 J. Roth
- 18 T. Strannegard
- 96 B. Labeau Melchior
- 9 F. Dursun
Substitutes
- 63 C. Konietzke
- 25 L. Watkowiak
- 47 E. Owusu
- 3 C. Kleine-Bekel
- 70 N. Scherrer
- 20 L. Frokaj
- 68 M. Heydari
- 37 L. Dähler
- 14 M. Käit
- 25 T. Spycher
- 20 R. Braschi
- 30 N. Maier
- 13 N. Zoukit
- 21 D. Derbaci
- 54 L. Passavant
- 80 S. Lengen
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