Match report →
Sion – Lugano1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Sion
1.74
Total xG
3.08
Lugano
1.34
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Sion | Lugano |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.33 | +1.33 |
| Attack weakness (0.77x league average) | −0.65 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.64 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 2 league avg) | −0.63 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.17 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.8 season average) | +0.17 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.13 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 2 season average) | +0.13 | |
| Rilind Nivokazi on the bench (13 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Ilyas Chouaref on the bench (9 goals, 8 assists) | ||
| Nias Hefti on the bench (0 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Franck Surdez on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 42% of goal output missing (only 51% available) | ||
| Kevin Behrens not in squad (13 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Renato Steffen on the bench (8 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Uran Bislimi on the bench (5 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 55% of goal output missing (only 59% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.3 vs 1.8 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Only 52% of the goal threat is available, without Rilind Nivokazi, Ilyas Chouaref, Nias Hefti, and Franck Surdez
- Lugano averaged 6.0 shots on target with 55% possession in recent matches
- Lugano enters undefeated with 3 wins and 2 draws in their last five matches while Sion suffered two consecutive losses
Risks
- Kevin Behrens, Renato Steffen, and Uran Bislimi are missing, only 59% of the goal threat is available
- Sion and Lugano enter the game with only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Sion's defense has been highly vulnerable recently, conceding an average of 2.8 goals per game in their past matches
All probabilities
Result
Sion46%
Draw26%
Lugano28%
Goals
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.559%
Under 2.541%
Over 3.537%
Under 3.563%
Double chance
Sion or draw72%
Lugano or draw54%
No draw74%
Both teams score
Yes62%
No38%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
9%
1:2
7%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Sion: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Lugano: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Lugano: 3 comebacks in 4 games after trailing past minute 75 (3 points rescued)
- Lugano: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Sion: 7 of 21 goals scored by substitutes (last 9 games)
- Yanis Cimignani: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
Lineups
Sion 4-1-4-1 · Lugano 3-1-4-2
Sion
- 1 A. Racioppi
- 14 N. Lavanchy
- 5 N. Sow
- 17 J. Kronig
- 6 M. Cipriano
- 88 A. Kabacalman
- 29 T. Berdayes
- 37 F. Sylla
- 8 B. Costa Rodrigues de Oliveira
- 77 D. Rrudhani
- 13 W. Boteli
Lugano
- 16 D. von Ballmoos
- 6 A. Papadopoulos
- 17 L. Mai
- 18 J. Bichsel
- 8 A. Grgic
- 46 M. Zanotti
- 14 A. Kendouci
- 27 D. dos Santos Correia
- 21 Y. Cimignani
- 30 D. Moncada
- 24 E. Pihlström
Substitutes
- 9 J. Lukembila
- 7 I. Chouaref
- 12 F. Ruberto
- 20 N. Hefti
- 10 B. Kololli
- 21 L. Chipperfield
- 33 R. Nivokazi
- 19 F. Surdez
- 38 R. Kessler
- 4 D. Kelvin
- 11 R. Steffen
- 25 U. Bislimi
- 3 H. Delcroix
- 44 J. Schlickmann Carbone
- 2 B. Karimov
- 23 G. Ajdin
- 22 B. Castro Espinosa
- 28 F. Gebhardt
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