Match report →
Lausanne Sport – Zürich2 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Lausanne Sport
1.55
Total xG
2.64
Zürich
1.09
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Lausanne Sport | Zürich |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.26 | +1.26 |
| Attack weakness (0.7x league average) | −0.92 | |
| Attack weakness (0.8x league average) | −0.58 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 2 league avg) | −0.44 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.15 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.5 season average) | −0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.14 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.14 | |
| Nathan Butler-Oyedeji on the bench (4 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Beyatt Lekoueiry not in squad (4 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Jamie Roche on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Kévin Mouanga not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 34% of goal output missing (only 68% available) | ||
| Valon Berisha not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Ilan Sauter on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.9 vs 1.5 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Lausanne Sport dominated recent direct duels with 3 wins from the last 5 matches, including a 3-0 home win in April 2026
- Zürich concedes an average of 2.25 goals per away match this season, making their defense highly vulnerable
- The mathematical model favors Lausanne Sport with a home win probability of 47% and a 75% probability for the Double Chance home or draw
Risks
- Nathan Butler-Oyedeji, Beyatt Lekoueiry, Jamie Roche, Kévin Mouanga are missing, only 68% of the usual attacking threat is available
- Lausanne Sport's goal production is faltering with 1.0 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.5
- Lausanne Sport averaged only 2.8 shots on target in recent matches
All probabilities
Result
Lausanne Sport47%
Draw28%
Zürich25%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.549%
Under 2.551%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Double chance
Lausanne Sport or draw75%
Zürich or draw53%
No draw72%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
2:0
9%
1:2
7%
2:2
5%
2:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Zürich: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Lausanne Sport: 3.2 cards per game (37 yellows, 1 reds in 12 games)
- Lausanne Sport with Omar Janneh starting: 1.1 goals/game, without him: 0.5 (18/6 games, last 30)
- Lausanne Sport: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Lausanne Sport 4-3-3 · Zürich 4-1-4-1
Lausanne Sport
- 90 M. Mastil
- 2 B. Soppy
- 3 T. Fredricson
- 71 A. Sow
- 18 M. Poaty
- 80 S. Koné
- 10 O. Custodio Da Costa
- 16 N. Beloko
- 9 E. Honoré Molébé
- 78 O. Janneh Susso
- 91 F. Mollet
Zürich
- 1 S. Huber
- 3 S. Hodža
- 2 L. Kamberi
- 42 A. Hack
- 44 S. Walker
- 21 L. Schödler
- 11 U. Emmanuel
- 38 M. Reichmuth
- 7 B. Krasniqi
- 17 K. Spadanuda
- 19 P. Keny
Substitutes
- 1 T. Castella
- 20 H. Abdallah
- 7 A. Ajdini
- 11 N. Butler-Oyedeji
- 17 S. Traore
- 47 P. NDiaye
- 8 J. Roche
- 6 T. Bergvall
- 5 D. Ngonzo
- 9 J. Perea Mendoza
- 18 M. Bangoura
- 29 D. Reverson
- 13 H. Lindner
- 48 D. Ihendu
- 49 D. Ramić
- 14 N. Di Giusto
- 22 C. Kablan
- 6 C. Fiorini
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