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Super League

Young Boys - Basel

08/29/2026, 06:30 PM

3 : 3
Expected Goals
Young Boys
2.3
Total xG
3.8
Basel
1.6
Most Likely Scores

2:1

9%

2:2

7%

3:1

7%

1:2

6%

3:2

5%
What influences the xG?
YBBAS

Young Boys

5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.8 goals/match)
+0.48
Rising form (3.8 vs 2.2 season average)
+0.48
Attack strength (1.2x league average)
+0.38
Jaouen Hadjam not in squad (2 goals, 4 assists)

Basel

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.02
58% of goal output missing (only 28% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match)
+1.26
+1.26
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Basel: opponent scores first in 9 of 12 games (75%)

  • 2
    Young Boys: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Young Boys with Samuel Essende starting: 2.9 goals/game, without him: 1.5 (14/13 games, last 30)

  • 4
    Christian Fassnacht: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)

  • 5
    Young Boys: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

52%

Draw

22%

Away Win

25%

Goals

Over 1.5

91%

Under 1.5

9%

Over 2.5

74%

Under 2.5

26%

Over 3.5

53%

Under 3.5

47%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

75%

Away or Draw

48%

No Draw

78%

Both Score

Yes

72%

No

28%

Key Factors
  • Offensive power: Young Boys average 3.8 goals in recent matches, well above their season average
  • Severely depleted attack: Basel's starting XI holds only 29% of its usual offensive strength
  • Tactical dominance: Young Boys averaged 9.0 shots on target per match in recent games
Risk Factors
  • Goalkeeper absent: Basel's starting keeper J. Omlin is sidelined with thigh problems
  • Away struggles: Basel concede an average of 2.06 goals per away match
  • Squad omission: Jaouen Hadjam is missing for Young Boys (2 goals, 4 assists)
Overview

Young Boys host Basel at the Stadion Wankdorf (Bern)

Super League top clash on August 29, 2026, 8:30 PM

League leaders Young Boys (10 points) face third-placed Basel (9 points)

The match is crucial for the top spot in the standings

Form

Young Boys form: DWWDW (3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses)

Basel form: LWLWW (3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses)

Young Boys are unbeaten in their last 5 matches

Basel come off two consecutive victories

Statistics

Young Boys average 2.11 goals scored and 1.82 goals conceded per match

Basel average 1.45 goals scored and 1.53 goals conceded

Young Boys score an average of 2.15 goals in home games

Basel concede an average of 2.06 goals in away games

Head-to-Head

5 head-to-head matches in total

2 wins for Young Boys, 1 win for Basel, and 2 draws

Goal difference of 13:9 in favor of Young Boys

The last meeting ended in a 3:0 victory for Young Boys on May 10, 2026

Key Players

Samuel Essende is in form with 5 goals and 2 assists in his last 5 games

Alvyn Sanches has contributed 10 goals and 6 assists this season

Christian Fassnacht adds 18 goals and 7 assists to the home attack

Goalkeepers

Marvin Keller starts for Young Boys who have kept 8 clean sheets

Mirko Salvi starts in goal for Basel who have recorded 9 clean sheets

Influences

High-scoring environment at Stadion Wankdorf with 4.8 average goals per match

Strong home advantage with Young Boys scoring 2.15 goals per home game

Both teams scored in 80% of the last 5 matches at this venue

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