Match report ā
Young Boys ā Basel3 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Young Boys
2.27
Total xG
3.83
Basel
1.57
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Young Boys | Basel |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.26 | +1.26 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.8 goals/match) | +0.48 | |
| Rising form (3.8 vs 2.2 season average) | +0.48 | |
| Attack strength (1.2x league average) | +0.38 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | ā0.02 | |
| Jaouen Hadjam not in squad (2 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| 58% of goal output missing (only 28% available) |
Key factors
- Offensive power: Young Boys average 3.8 goals in recent matches, well above their season average
- Severely depleted attack: Basel's starting XI holds only 29% of its usual offensive strength
- Tactical dominance: Young Boys averaged 9.0 shots on target per match in recent games
Risks
- Goalkeeper absent: Basel's starting keeper J. Omlin is sidelined with thigh problems
- Away struggles: Basel concede an average of 2.06 goals per away match
- Squad omission: Jaouen Hadjam is missing for Young Boys (2 goals, 4 assists)
All probabilities
Result
Young Boys52%
Draw22%
Basel25%
Goals
Over 1.591%
Under 1.59%
Over 2.574%
Under 2.526%
Over 3.553%
Under 3.547%
Double chance
Young Boys or draw75%
Basel or draw48%
No draw78%
Both teams score
Yes72%
No28%
Most likely scores
2:1
9%
2:2
7%
3:1
7%
1:2
6%
3:2
5%
3:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Basel: opponent scores first in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Young Boys: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Young Boys with Samuel Essende starting: 2.9 goals/game, without him: 1.5 (14/13 games, last 30)
- Christian Fassnacht: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Young Boys: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Young Boys 4-4-1-1 Ā· Basel 4-3-3
Young Boys
- 1 M. Keller
- 27 L. Blum
- 30 S. Lauper
- 23 L. Benito
- 33 S. Bukinac
- 16 C. Fassnacht
- 8 A. Gigovic
- 6 E. Fernandes
- 11 J. Monteiro
- 10 A. Antonio Sanches
- 99 S. Essende
Basel
- 13 M. Salvi
- 6 K. Tsunemoto
- 24 F. Daniliuc
- 55 A. Victory Maduabuchukwu
- 29 M. Cisse
- 5 A. Silu
- 4 B. Omeragic
- 8 L. Malachowski Thorell
- 18 A. Sow
- 9 Ž. Celar
- 11 K. Olaigbe
Substitutes
- 22 I. Schmidt
- 18 J. Mall
- 13 D. Pech
- 7 A. Virginius
- 17 S. Janko
- 5 G. WĆ¼thrich
- 9 M. Sene
- 34 E. Etoski
- 52 N. Tschanz
- 10 X. Shaqiri
- 3 N. Vouilloz
- 14 A. BaÄanin
- 27 K. RĆ¼egg
- 7 P. Otele
- 17 A. Malouda
- 44 J. Harder
- 37 G. Koloto
- 49 R. Widmer DāAutilia
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