Match report →
Servette – Luzern1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Servette
1.56
Total xG
2.61
Luzern
1.05
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Servette | Luzern |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.26 | +1.26 |
| Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 2 league avg) | −0.30 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.17 | |
| Declining form (1.4 vs 2 season average) | −0.17 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | +0.04 | |
| Florian Ayé not in squad (11 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Bradley Mazikou on the bench (0 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Lucas Manuel Silva Ferreira on the bench (7 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Rúben Dantas Fernandes on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 13% of goal output missing (only 91% available) |
Key factors
- Mathematical home win probability calculated at 48%
- Servette averaged 6.4 shots on target in recent matches
- Luzern averaged 5.2 shots on target in recent games
Risks
- Both teams currently show a declining goal production of 1.4 goals per match according to advancedStats
- Servette misses J. Kadile with 6 goals and 10 assists due to injury
- Luzern concedes an average of 1.65 goals per away game
All probabilities
Result
Servette48%
Draw28%
Luzern24%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.548%
Under 2.552%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Double chance
Servette or draw76%
Luzern or draw52%
No draw72%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
2:0
9%
1:2
6%
2:2
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Luzern: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Luzern: 73% of all goals in the second half (16 of 22, last 12 games)
Lineups
Servette 4-2-3-1 · Luzern 4-4-2
Servette
- 78 L. Besson
- 23 Q. Maceiras
- 4 S. Rouiller
- 15 M. Burch
- 14 L. Njoh
- 6 P. Naressi Machado
- 28 D. Douline
- 9 M. Stevanović
- 8 T. Cognat
- 77 T. Ouattara
- 90 S. Mráz
Luzern
- 30 K. Letica
- 20 P. Dorn
- 13 B. Freimann
- 46 B. Freimann
- 14 A. Cigaņiks
- 24 T. Owusu
- 80 Mio Zimmermann
- 6 L. Bertone
- 11 M. Di Giusto
- 16 O. Kabwit tshikomb
- 19 D. Mikołajewski
Substitutes
- 11 L. Fomba
- 34 T. Allix
- 18 B. Mazikou
- 17 H. Mendes
- 20 J. Simo
- 44 L.Rieder
- 37 S. Djoho
- 41 T.Nunez
- 38 B. Sida
- 21 L. Lüthi
- 10 L. Silva Ferreira
- 22 R. Fernandes
- 17 S. Wyss
- 29 L. Winkler
- 5 S. Knežević
- 71 S. Meyer
- 1 S. Simoni
- 15 N. Toggenburg
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