Match report →
Vaduz – Grasshopper5 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Vaduz
1.50
Total xG
2.41
Grasshopper
0.91
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Vaduz | Grasshopper |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.33 | +1.33 |
| Attack weakness (0.6x league average) | −1.24 | |
| Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean | −0.20 | |
| Defensive strength (2 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | +0.19 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.16 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.16 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.10 | |
| Defensive strength (1.9 conceded vs 2 league avg) | −0.09 | |
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Vaduz averaged 5.8 shots on target in recent matches
- Offensive trend: Vaduz currently scores more frequently (1.8 goals) than their season average (1.5 goals)
- Mathematical edge: The prediction model calculates a 49% probability for a home win
Risks
- Away defensive weakness: Grasshopper concede an average of 2.35 goals per away game
- Limited data availability regarding Vaduz player statistics
- Long break: Grasshopper with 22 days without competitive match practice before this game
All probabilities
Result
Vaduz49%
Draw29%
Grasshopper21%
Goals
Over 1.571%
Under 1.529%
Over 2.543%
Under 2.557%
Over 3.522%
Under 3.578%
Double chance
Vaduz or draw79%
Grasshopper or draw51%
No draw71%
Both teams score
Yes48%
No52%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
12%
0:0
11%
2:0
10%
2:1
9%
5:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Grasshopper: dropped a lead in 6 of 9 games (18 points lost)
- Grasshopper: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Vaduz: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 11 games)
- Vaduz: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 11 games (45%)
- Vaduz: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (8 points lost)
- Grasshopper: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Vaduz 4-3-1-2 · Grasshopper 4-3-1-2
Vaduz
- 25 L. Schaffran
- 4 N. Hasler
- 6 D. Simani
- 5 L. Berisha
- 7 D. Schwizer
- 17 J. Stark
- 20 L. Mack
- 10 J. Cabrera
- 28 M. Cocic
- 11 L. Dalipi
- 9 M. Michael Monsberger
Grasshopper
- 71 J. Hammel
- 28 S. Stroscio
- 44 B. Pllana
- 4 L. Mikulić
- 57 N. Rissi
- 8 T. Meyer
- 66 M. Gibelalde Mujika
- 17 S. Krasniqi
- 6 A. Abrashi
- 9 N. Muci
- 18 Y. Lee
Substitutes
- 27 N. Lang
- 14 M. Beeli
- 22 M. Eberhard
- 1 B. Büchel
- 23 M. Hammerich
- 29 M. Sawadogo
- 19 D. Djokic
- 30 M. Walker
- 18 D. Kasper
- 34 A. Arigoni
- 58 Y. Bettkober
- 7 L. Plange
- 23 S. Marques
- 10 Ó. Clemente Mues
- 60 S. Bengondo
- 55 D.Papic
- 56 D. Sahin
- 1 M. Hübel
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