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Super League

Luzern - Vaduz

09/02/2026, 06:30 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Luzern
1.8
Total xG
3.6
Vaduz
1.8
Most Likely Scores

2:1

8%

1:2

8%

2:2

7%

3:1

5%

1:3

5%
What influences the xG?
LUZVAD

Luzern

Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
+0.62
Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 2.1 league avg)
-0.32
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.28
Declining form (1 vs 1.9 season average)
-0.28

Vaduz

Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.47
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.20
Rising form (2.4 vs 1.8 season average)
+0.20
Defensive strength (1.9 conceded vs 2 league avg)
-0.08
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (4.1 goals/match)
+1.61
+1.61
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Luzern: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Vaduz: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Vaduz: goal in the first 15 minutes in 6 of 12 games (50%)

  • 4
    Luzern: 74% of all goals in the second half (14 of 19, last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

38%

Draw

24%

Away Win

38%

Goals

Over 1.5

89%

Under 1.5

11%

Over 2.5

70%

Under 2.5

30%

Over 3.5

48%

Under 3.5

52%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

62%

Away or Draw

62%

No Draw

76%

Both Score

Yes

71%

No

29%

Key Factors
  • Vaduz averaged 6.0 shots on target in recent matches, showing a strong offensive approach
  • Glaring defensive weakness of the visitors, conceding an average of 4.5 goals per away match this season
  • High scoring expectation with the model predicting a 70% probability for over 2.5 goals
Risk Factors
  • Luzern's goal production is stuttering, averaging only 1.0 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.93
  • Vaduz has a shorter recovery period with only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Limited data available on head-to-head matches
Overview

Luzern hosts Vaduz at the swissporarena

Super League match on September 2, 2026, 8:30 PM

A bottom-table clash between 9th and 11th place

Only two points separate the two sides

Form

Luzern form: LLDWD (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses, W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Vaduz form: LLDLW (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses)

Luzern is stabilizing with a recent win and a draw

Vaduz travels with momentum after a recent 5-2 victory against Grasshoppers

Statistics

Luzern's goal production is stuttering with 1.0 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.93

Vaduz is currently scoring more frequently with 2.4 goals per match than their season average of 1.75

Extreme defensive weakness for Vaduz with 4.5 goals conceded per away match

Luzern concedes an average of 1.81 goals at home

Key Players

Matteo Di Giusto leads Luzern's midfield with 2 goals and a 7.24 rating

Daniel Mikolajewski provides threat with 1 goal and 1 assist

Andrejs Ciganiks solidifies the defense and has already scored 1 goal

Lutfi Dalipi shines for Vaduz with 2 goals and 4 assists

Juan Cabrera has already contributed 3 goals this season

Dominik Schwizer impresses in midfield with 2 goals

Goalkeepers

Karlo Letica guards the goal for Luzern, recording 7 clean sheets this season

On the other side, Leon Schaffran is still waiting for his first clean sheet of the season

Statistically, Luzern has the more stable presence between the posts

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at the swissporarena

Luzern benefits from home advantage, scoring an average of 2.0 home goals per game

Matches played at this venue have seen an average of 3.2 goals

The probability of both teams scoring is calculated at 71%

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