Match report →
Luzern – Vaduz2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Luzern
1.80
Total xG
3.60
Vaduz
1.80
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Luzern | Vaduz |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (4.1 goals/match) | +1.61 | +1.61 |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.62 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | +0.47 | |
| Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 2.1 league avg) | −0.32 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.28 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.9 season average) | −0.28 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.20 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.8 season average) | +0.20 | |
| Defensive strength (1.9 conceded vs 2 league avg) | −0.08 | |
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Vaduz averaged 6.0 shots on target in recent matches, showing a strong offensive approach
- Glaring defensive weakness of the visitors, conceding an average of 4.5 goals per away match this season
- High scoring expectation with the model predicting a 70% probability for over 2.5 goals
Risks
- Luzern's goal production is stuttering, averaging only 1.0 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.93
- Vaduz has a shorter recovery period with only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Limited data available on head-to-head matches
All probabilities
Result
Luzern38%
Draw24%
Vaduz38%
Double chance
Luzern or draw62%
Vaduz or draw62%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.589%
Under 1.511%
Over 2.570%
Under 2.530%
Over 3.548%
Under 3.552%
Both teams score
Yes71%
No29%
Most likely scores
2:1
8%
1:2
8%
2:2
7%
3:1
5%
1:3
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Luzern: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Vaduz: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Vaduz: goal in the first 15 minutes in 6 of 12 games (50%)
- Luzern: 74% of all goals in the second half (14 of 19, last 12 games)
Lineups
Luzern 4-4-2 · Vaduz 4-3-1-2
Luzern
- 30 K. Letica
- 22 R. Fernandes
- 13 B. Freimann
- 46 B. Freimann
- 14 A. Cigaņiks
- 24 T. Owusu
- 80 Mio Zimmermann
- 6 L. Bertone
- 11 M. Di Giusto
- 19 D. Mikołajewski
- 18 B. Beenga
Vaduz
- 25 L. Schaffran
- 4 N. Hasler
- 6 D. Simani
- 5 L. Berisha
- 7 D. Schwizer
- 17 J. Stark
- 20 L. Mack
- 10 J. Cabrera
- 28 M. Cocic
- 11 L. Dalipi
- 9 M. Michael Monsberger
Substitutes
- 21 L. Lüthi
- 10 L. Silva Ferreira
- 17 S. Wyss
- 29 L. Winkler
- 5 S. Knežević
- 71 S. Meyer
- 7 A. Oehlers
- 1 S. Simoni
- 15 N. Toggenburg
- 27 N. Lang
- 14 M. Beeli
- 22 M. Eberhard
- 1 B. Büchel
- 23 M. Hammerich
- 29 M. Sawadogo
- 19 D. Djokic
- 30 M. Walker
- 18 D. Kasper
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