Match report →
Thun – Lausanne Sport0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Thun
1.46
Total xG
2.88
Lausanne Sport
1.42
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Thun | Lausanne Sport |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (4.1 goals/match) | +1.61 | +1.61 |
| Attack weakness (0.31x league average) | −1.34 | |
| Attack weakness (0.68x league average) | −0.96 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.87 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 2 league avg) | −0.42 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 8 vs 1, 7 places gap) | −0.11 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.09 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.5 season average) | −0.09 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 8, 7 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| Fabio Fehr on the bench (2 goals, 7 assists) | ||
| Marco Bürki on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 26% of goal output missing (only 65% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.6 vs 1.5 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Balanced outlook: Mathematical analysis predicts a close match with a 37% home win and 35% away win probability
- Tactical play: Thun recently averaged 42.2% possession and 3.8 shots on target, while Lausanne averaged 53% possession
- Home strength vs away weakness: Thun scores 2.14 goals per home game, whereas Lausanne concedes 2.43 goals per away match
Risks
- Squad depth issues for Thun: Fabio Fehr and Marco Bürki are missing, leaving only 66% of the usual goal threat available
- Fatigue concerns: Thun enters the game with only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Low efficiency: Lausanne Sport averaged only 2.4 shots on target per match in recent games
All probabilities
Result
Thun37%
Draw28%
Lausanne Sport35%
Double chance
Thun or draw65%
Lausanne Sport or draw63%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.555%
Under 2.545%
Over 3.533%
Under 3.567%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:2
6%
2:0
6%
0:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Thun: 9 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Lausanne Sport: 3.2 cards per game (38 yellows, 1 reds in 12 games)
- Thun: dropped a lead in 5 of 8 games (13 points lost)
- Lausanne Sport: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- Thun: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)
- Lausanne Sport with Omar Janneh starting: 1.2 goals/game, without him: 0.6 (19/5 games, last 30)
Lineups
Thun 4-4-2 · Lausanne Sport 4-2-3-1
Thun
- 1 N. Steffen
- 37 L. Dähler
- 5 N. Bürgy
- 19 J. Bamert
- 18 T. Strannegard
- 30 N. Maier
- 16 J. Roth
- 13 N. Zoukit
- 70 N. Reichmuth
- 80 S. Lengen
- 96 B. Labeau Melchior
Lausanne Sport
- 90 M. Mastil
- 2 B. Soppy
- 71 A. Sow
- 18 M. Poaty
- 6 T. Bergvall
- 80 S. Koné
- 10 O. Custodio Da Costa
- 11 N. Butler-Oyedeji
- 91 F. Mollet
- 9 E. Honoré Molébé
- 78 O. Janneh Susso
Substitutes
- 14 M. Käit
- 47 F. Fehr
- 23 M. Bürki
- 25 T. Spycher
- 9 F. Dursun
- 21 D. Derbaci
- 54 L. Passavant
- 8 F. Saiz Pennarossa
- 26 N. Christoffersson
- 1 T. Castella
- 20 H. Abdallah
- 7 A. Ajdini
- 17 S. Traore
- 47 P. NDiaye
- 88 K. Koindredi
- 31 N. Cozza
- 5 D. Ngonzo
- 22 T. Cordier
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