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Super League

Thun - Lausanne Sport

09/02/2026, 06:30 PM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
Thun
1.5
Total xG
2.9
Lausanne Sport
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:2

6%

2:0

6%
What influences the xG?
THULS

Thun

Attack weakness (0.68x league average)
-0.96
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 8, 7 places gap)
+0.05
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
-0.03
Fabio Fehr on the bench (2 goals, 7 assists)
Marco Bürki on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
26% of goal output missing (only 65% available)

Lausanne Sport

Attack weakness (0.31x league average)
-1.34
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
+0.87
Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 2 league avg)
-0.42
Standings disadvantage (pos 8 vs 1, 7 places gap)
-0.11
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.09
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.5 season average)
-0.09
Weak away record (0.6 vs 1.5 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (4.1 goals/match)
+1.61
+1.61
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Thun: 9 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Lausanne Sport: 3.2 cards per game (38 yellows, 1 reds in 12 games)

  • 3
    Thun: dropped a lead in 5 of 8 games (13 points lost)

  • 4
    Lausanne Sport: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 5
    Thun: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)

  • 6
    Lausanne Sport with Omar Janneh starting: 1.2 goals/game, without him: 0.6 (19/5 games, last 30)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

37%

Draw

28%

Away Win

35%

Goals

Over 1.5

80%

Under 1.5

20%

Over 2.5

55%

Under 2.5

45%

Over 3.5

33%

Under 3.5

67%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

65%

Away or Draw

63%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

60%

No

40%

Key Factors
  • Balanced outlook: Mathematical analysis predicts a close match with a 37% home win and 35% away win probability
  • Tactical play: Thun recently averaged 42.2% possession and 3.8 shots on target, while Lausanne averaged 53% possession
  • Home strength vs away weakness: Thun scores 2.14 goals per home game, whereas Lausanne concedes 2.43 goals per away match
Risk Factors
  • Squad depth issues for Thun: Fabio Fehr and Marco Bürki are missing, leaving only 66% of the usual goal threat available
  • Fatigue concerns: Thun enters the game with only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Low efficiency: Lausanne Sport averaged only 2.4 shots on target per match in recent games
Overview

Thun (6th place, 6 points) host Lausanne Sport (8th place, 5 points) at the Stockhorn Arena

Super League match on September 2, 2026, 7:30 PM

Both teams are closely ranked in the standings

Form

Thun holds a form curve of LLLDW with 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses recently

Lausanne Sport travels with a form curve of DWDLL, consisting of 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses

Statistics

Thun averages 2.11 goals scored and 1.37 goals conceded per game this season

Lausanne Sport averages 1.39 goals scored and 1.76 goals conceded

Away from home, Lausanne struggles defensively with 2.43 goals conceded per match

Head-to-Head

In 3 head-to-head matches, Thun has 2 wins and Lausanne Sport has 1 win with 8:4 goals

The last encounter on February 12, 2026, ended in a clear 5:1 victory for Thun

Key Players

Brighton Labeau scored 3 goals in his last 3 games with a rating of 7.42

Nils Reichmuth contributed 1 goal and 1 assist recently

Jan Bamert played 3 matches recently, stabilizing the defense

Florent Mollet scored 2 goals in 5 appearances this season with a 7.08 rating

Omar Janneh recorded 1 goal and 1 assist in 5 games

Karim Sow has been solid defensively with 1 assist and a 7.09 rating

Goalkeepers

Niklas Steffen played 36 matches this season and recorded 6 clean sheets

M. Mastil appeared 5 times and contributed to his team's total of 6 clean sheets

Influences

The match takes place on artificial turf at the Stockhorn Arena

Thun has a home record of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses on this surface

Lausanne Sport has registered 1 win, 1 draw, and 2 losses on artificial turf

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