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Super League

Basel - Sion

09/03/2026, 06:30 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Basel
1.8
Total xG
2.8
Sion
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

10%

2:0

9%

1:2

6%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
BASSIO

Basel

Attack weakness (0.73x league average)
-0.76
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
+0.49
Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 2 league avg)
-0.41
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.15
Rising form (2 vs 1.5 season average)
+0.15
Full strength squad available

Sion

4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.07
Rilind Nivokazi on the bench (13 goals, 5 assists)
Ilyas Chouaref not in squad (9 goals, 8 assists)
Franck Surdez on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists)
36% of goal output missing (only 58% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.9 goals/match)
+1.37
+1.37
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Sion: 9 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Basel: opponent scores first in 10 of 12 games (83%)

  • 3
    Sion: 7 of 20 goals scored by substitutes (last 9 games)

  • 4
    Basel: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 5
    Sion: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

53%

Draw

26%

Away Win

21%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

53%

Under 2.5

47%

Over 3.5

31%

Under 3.5

69%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

79%

Away or Draw

47%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • Mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 53% with 1.76 expected goals for Basel
  • Basel show a much more stable recent form with 3 wins and only one loss in their last 5 matches compared to Sion
  • Basel are offensively improved, currently averaging 2.0 goals compared to their season average of 1.5 goals
Risk Factors
  • Squad restriction for Basel with only 18% of seasonal goal production available in the current lineup
  • Sion are missing Rilind Nivokazi, Ilyas Chouaref and Franck Surdez, leaving only 59% of their usual goal threat available
  • Sion have a shorter recovery period with only 4 days of rest since their last match
Overview

Basel in 3rd place with 10 points host Sion in 7th place with 6 points

Super League match on September 3, 2026, 8:30 PM at St. Jakob-Park

Basel aim to stay close to the top of the table

Form

Form Basel: WLWWD - 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in recent matches

Form Sion: WWLLL - 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses

Basel recently drew 3-3 against Young Boys

Sion lost their last match 1-2 against Lugano

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Basel average 1.45 goals scored and 1.53 goals conceded per game this season

In home matches Basel average 1.45 goals scored and 1.05 goals conceded

Sion average 1.66 goals scored and 1.05 goals conceded

Sion average 1.62 goals scored and 1.24 goals conceded away from home

Both teams scored in 23 of Basel's 38 games this season

Head-to-Head

5 head-to-head matches recorded

Both teams have 2 wins each with 1 draw

The goal difference is 4-5 from Basel's perspective

Sion won the last head-to-head match 2-0 away on April 26, 2026

Key Players

Asane Sow has 3 goals and 2 assists with a rating of 7.19 in 5 appearances

Zan Celar scored 3 goals and 1 assist in 5 matches with a 6.87 rating

Kazeem Olaigbe has 2 goals and 1 assist in 5 matches with a 6.98 rating

Winsley Boteli scored 8 goals in 23 matches with a 6.74 rating

Donat Rrudhani contributed 3 goals and 1 assist in 21 matches with a 6.93 rating

Ali Kabacalman has 3 goals and 2 assists in 37 matches with a 7.02 rating

Goalkeepers

Mirko Salvi played in 4 of the last 5 matches for Basel

Basel have kept 9 clean sheets in total this season

Anthony Racioppi played in 4 of the last 5 matches for Sion

Sion have kept 15 clean sheets this season

Influences

The home advantage at St. Jakob-Park is supported by the grass surface

Historical stadium statistics at St. Jakob-Park show an average of 3.4 goals per game

Both teams scored in 60% of historical matches at this stadium

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