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Basel – Sion1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Basel
1.76
Total xG
2.80
Sion
1.04
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Basel | Sion |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.9 goals/match) | +1.37 | +1.37 |
| Attack weakness (0.73x league average) | −0.76 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.49 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 2 league avg) | −0.41 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.15 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.07 | |
| Rilind Nivokazi on the bench (13 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Ilyas Chouaref not in squad (9 goals, 8 assists) | ||
| Franck Surdez on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 36% of goal output missing (only 58% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 53% with 1.76 expected goals for Basel
- Basel show a much more stable recent form with 3 wins and only one loss in their last 5 matches compared to Sion
- Basel are offensively improved, currently averaging 2.0 goals compared to their season average of 1.5 goals
Risks
- Squad restriction for Basel with only 18% of seasonal goal production available in the current lineup
- Sion are missing Rilind Nivokazi, Ilyas Chouaref and Franck Surdez, leaving only 59% of their usual goal threat available
- Sion have a shorter recovery period with only 4 days of rest since their last match
All probabilities
Result
Basel53%
Draw26%
Sion21%
Double chance
Basel or draw79%
Sion or draw47%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.553%
Under 2.547%
Over 3.531%
Under 3.569%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
1:2
6%
3:1
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Sion: 9 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Basel: opponent scores first in 10 of 12 games (83%)
- Sion: 7 of 20 goals scored by substitutes (last 9 games)
- Basel: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Sion: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Basel 4-2-3-1 · Sion 4-1-4-1
Basel
- 13 M. Salvi
- 6 K. Tsunemoto
- 24 F. Daniliuc
- 55 A. Victory Maduabuchukwu
- 29 M. Cisse
- 4 B. Omeragic
- 5 A. Silu
- 18 A. Sow
- 10 X. Shaqiri
- 11 K. Olaigbe
- 9 Ž. Celar
Sion
- 1 A. Racioppi
- 14 N. Lavanchy
- 5 N. Sow
- 17 J. Kronig
- 6 M. Cipriano
- 88 A. Kabacalman
- 29 T. Berdayes
- 37 F. Sylla
- 8 B. Costa Rodrigues de Oliveira
- 77 D. Rrudhani
- 13 W. Boteli
Substitutes
- 3 N. Vouilloz
- 14 A. Bačanin
- 27 K. Rüegg
- 7 P. Otele
- 17 A. Malouda
- 44 J. Harder
- 37 G. Koloto
- 8 L. Malachowski Thorell
- 49 R. Widmer D’Autilia
- 9 J. Lukembila
- 22 A. Llukes
- 12 F. Ruberto
- 20 N. Hefti
- 10 B. Kololli
- 21 L. Chipperfield
- 33 R. Nivokazi
- 55 L. Villa
- 19 F. Surdez
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