Match report →
Zürich – Young Boys2 : 4
Why the model thinks so
Zürich
1.70
Total xG
3.71
Young Boys
2.00
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Zürich | Young Boys |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (4 goals/match) | +1.54 | +1.54 |
| Attack weakness (0.48x league average) | −1.30 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.89 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.8 goals/match) | +0.47 | |
| Rising form (3.8 vs 2.2 season average) | +0.47 | |
| Defensive strength (2 conceded vs 2.1 league avg) | −0.16 | |
| Defensive strength (1.9 conceded vs 1.9 league avg) | −0.05 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.04 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| Attack strength (1.26x league average) | +0.03 | |
| Valon Berisha on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 10% of goal output missing (only 83% available) | ||
| Lewin Blum on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Joël Monteiro not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 32% of goal output missing (only 71% available) |
Key factors
- Attacking trend: Young Boys are currently scoring 3.8 goals on average recently, compared to their season average of 2.2
- Shot accuracy: The visitors averaged 9.4 shots on target per match in their last 5 games
- Head-to-head dominance: Young Boys won all last 5 head-to-head matches against Zürich, scoring 14 goals in the process
Risks
- Squad impact for Young Boys: Key players Lewin Blum (2G/3A) and Joël Monteiro (3G/1A) are missing, leaving only 71% of standard starting lineup strength
- Fatigue factor: Both teams enter the match with a short recovery period of only 3 days since their previous fixture
- Fragile away defense: Young Boys concede an average of 2.44 goals per game on their travels
All probabilities
Result
Zürich32%
Draw24%
Young Boys44%
Double chance
Zürich or draw56%
Young Boys or draw68%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.590%
Under 1.510%
Over 2.572%
Under 2.528%
Over 3.551%
Under 3.549%
Both teams score
Yes72%
No28%
Most likely scores
1:2
8%
2:2
7%
2:1
7%
1:3
6%
2:3
5%
2:4
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Young Boys: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Zürich: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Young Boys with Samuel Essende starting: 2.9 goals/game, without him: 1.7 (15/12 games, last 30)
- Christian Fassnacht: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Young Boys: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Zürich: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Zürich 4-4-2 · Young Boys 4-4-2
Zürich
- 1 S. Huber
- 22 C. Kablan
- 2 L. Kamberi
- 42 A. Hack
- 44 S. Walker
- 11 U. Emmanuel
- 21 L. Schödler
- 7 B. Krasniqi
- 17 K. Spadanuda
- 38 M. Reichmuth
- 19 P. Keny
Young Boys
- 1 M. Keller
- 22 I. Schmidt
- 30 S. Lauper
- 23 L. Benito
- 33 S. Bukinac
- 10 A. Antonio Sanches
- 13 D. Pech
- 6 E. Fernandes
- 16 C. Fassnacht
- 9 M. Sene
- 99 S. Essende
Substitutes
- 18 M. Bangoura
- 43 N. Volken
- 29 D. Reverson
- 13 H. Lindner
- 48 D. Ihendu
- 49 D. Ramić
- 14 N. Di Giusto
- 23 V. Berisha
- 47 D. Lichtenstein
- 18 J. Mall
- 8 A. Gigovic
- 7 A. Virginius
- 17 S. Janko
- 5 G. Wüthrich
- 12 B. Guirassy
- 27 L. Blum
- 34 E. Etoski
- 52 N. Tschanz
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