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Grasshopper – St. Gallen2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Grasshopper
1.16
Total xG
2.61
St. Gallen
1.45
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Grasshopper | St. Gallen |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (4.1 goals/match) | +1.61 | +1.61 |
| Attack weakness (0.5x league average) | −1.09 | |
| Attack weakness (0.7x league average) | −0.86 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 2, 9 places gap) | −0.11 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.11 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.09 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.09 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 11, 9 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| Defensive strength (2.1 conceded vs 2.1 league avg) | −0.01 | |
| Tim Meyer not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 16% of goal output missing (only 68% available) | ||
| Mihailo Stevanovic on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) |
Key factors
- Model prediction advantage: The model calculates a 42% probability for an away win compared to just 29% for a home win
- Tactical dominance: St. Gallen averaged 8.2 shots on target per match in recent games with 57% ball possession
- Historical head-to-head dominance: St. Gallen secured 3 wins in the last 5 meetings while scoring 10 goals
Risks
- Tim Meyer is missing for the hosts, leaving only 69% of the usual starting danger available
- High workload for both teams with only 3 days of rest since their last competitive match
- Grasshopper conceded a high average of 1.95 goals per match during the current season
All probabilities
Result
Grasshopper29%
Draw29%
St. Gallen42%
Double chance
Grasshopper or draw58%
St. Gallen or draw71%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.548%
Under 2.552%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:2
9%
0:2
8%
2:1
7%
2:2
5%
2:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- St. Gallen: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Grasshopper: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Grasshopper: dropped a lead in 5 of 8 games (15 points lost)
- St. Gallen: 73% of all goals in the second half (19 of 26, last 12 games)
- Grasshopper: 38% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 16)
- St. Gallen: 2.9 cards per game (30 yellows, 2 reds in 11 games)
Lineups
Grasshopper 4-3-3 · St. Gallen 3-1-4-2
Grasshopper
- 1 M. Hübel
- 28 S. Stroscio
- 58 Y. Bettkober
- 44 B. Pllana
- 57 N. Rissi
- 10 Ó. Clemente Mues
- 66 M. Gibelalde Mujika
- 6 A. Abrashi
- 60 S. Bengondo
- 9 N. Muci
- 17 S. Krasniqi
St. Gallen
- 1 L. Ati-Zigi
- 3 C. Kleine-Bekel
- 4 J. Stanic
- 36 C. Okoroji
- 10 L. Daschner
- 28 H. Vandermersch
- 16 L. Görtler
- 20 L. Frokaj
- 47 E. Owusu
- 7 C. Witzig
- 14 A. Balde
Substitutes
- 18 Y. Lee
- 34 A. Arigoni
- 15 A. Diaby
- 7 L. Plange
- 5 H. Imourane
- 71 J. Hammel
- 11 G. Morandi
- 4 L. Mikulić
- 55 D.Papic
- 11 C. Boukhalfa
- 31 D. Besio
- 64 M. Stevanovic
- 63 C. Konietzke
- 25 L. Watkowiak
- 6 B. Neziri
- 74 J. Ruiz
- 70 N. Scherrer
- 68 M. Heydari
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