Match report →
Lugano – Servette1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Lugano
0.98
Total xG
2.11
Servette
1.13
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Lugano | Servette |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.57x league average) | −1.42 | |
| High-scoring league (3.9 goals/match) | +1.37 | +1.37 |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 2 league avg) | −0.84 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.17 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.8 season average) | +0.17 | |
| Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.16 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.16 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.7 season average) | −0.16 | |
| Kevin Behrens not in squad (13 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Anto Grgic on the bench (7 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Mattia Zanotti on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 36% of goal output missing (only 65% available) | ||
| Florian Ayé not in squad (11 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 11% of goal output missing (only 94% available) |
Key factors
- Lugano is scoring more frequently recently with 2.4 goals per game compared to their season average of 1.8
- Servette averaged a strong 6.0 shots on target in recent matches
- The mathematical model predicts a slight advantage for Servette with a 37% away win probability
Risks
- Only 65% of regular starting strength for Lugano is available, missing Kevin Behrens, Anto Grgic, and Mattia Zanotti
- Servette's offensive output has stalled recently averaging 1.2 goals compared to their season average of 1.7
- Servette concedes a vulnerable average of 1.89 goals per away game
All probabilities
Result
Lugano30%
Draw33%
Servette37%
Double chance
Lugano or draw63%
Servette or draw70%
No draw67%
Goals
Over 1.564%
Under 1.536%
Over 2.535%
Under 2.565%
Over 3.516%
Under 3.584%
Both teams score
Yes44%
No56%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
14%
0:1
12%
1:0
10%
0:2
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Lugano: 3 comebacks in 3 games after trailing past minute 75 (3 points rescued)
- Lugano: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Lugano: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Lugano: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)
- Servette: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Lugano 3-1-4-2 · Servette 4-4-2
Lugano
- 16 D. von Ballmoos
- 6 A. Papadopoulos
- 4 D. Kelvin
- 3 H. Delcroix
- 25 U. Bislimi
- 2 B. Karimov
- 14 A. Kendouci
- 27 D. dos Santos Correia
- 21 Y. Cimignani
- 11 R. Steffen
- 30 D. Moncada
Servette
- 1 E. Gertmonas
- 23 Q. Maceiras
- 4 S. Rouiller
- 15 M. Burch
- 18 B. Mazikou
- 77 T. Ouattara
- 6 P. Naressi Machado
- 8 T. Cognat
- 14 L. Njoh
- 9 M. Stevanović
- 90 S. Mráz
Substitutes
- 9 A. Ajeti
- 24 E. Pihlström
- 17 L. Mai
- 8 A. Grgic
- 46 M. Zanotti
- 23 G. Ajdin
- 18 J. Bichsel
- 22 B. Castro Espinosa
- 28 F. Gebhardt
- 28 D. Douline
- 34 T. Allix
- 36 T. Lopes
- 17 H. Mendes
- 7 K. Mutandwa
- 27 D. Fofana
- 20 J. Simo
- 44 L.Rieder
- 37 S. Djoho
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