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Super League

Lugano - Servette

09/03/2026, 06:30 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Lugano
1.0
Total xG
2.1
Servette
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

14%

0:1

12%

1:0

10%

0:2

8%
What influences the xG?
LUGSER

Lugano

Attack weakness (0.57x league average)
-1.42
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 2 league avg)
-0.84
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.17
Rising form (2.4 vs 1.8 season average)
+0.17
Kevin Behrens not in squad (13 goals, 2 assists)
Anto Grgic on the bench (7 goals, 6 assists)
Mattia Zanotti on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists)
36% of goal output missing (only 65% available)

Servette

Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.16
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.16
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.7 season average)
-0.16
Florian Ayé not in squad (11 goals, 2 assists)
11% of goal output missing (only 94% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.9 goals/match)
+1.37
+1.37
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Lugano: 3 comebacks in 3 games after trailing past minute 75 (3 points rescued)

  • 2
    Lugano: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)

  • 3
    Lugano: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 4
    Lugano: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)

  • 5
    Servette: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

30%

Draw

33%

Away Win

37%

Goals

Over 1.5

64%

Under 1.5

36%

Over 2.5

35%

Under 2.5

65%

Over 3.5

16%

Under 3.5

84%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

63%

Away or Draw

70%

No Draw

67%

Both Score

Yes

44%

No

56%

Key Factors
  • Lugano is scoring more frequently recently with 2.4 goals per game compared to their season average of 1.8
  • Servette averaged a strong 6.0 shots on target in recent matches
  • The mathematical model predicts a slight advantage for Servette with a 37% away win probability
Risk Factors
  • Only 65% of regular starting strength for Lugano is available, missing Kevin Behrens, Anto Grgic, and Mattia Zanotti
  • Servette's offensive output has stalled recently averaging 1.2 goals compared to their season average of 1.7
  • Servette concedes a vulnerable average of 1.89 goals per away game
Overview

Lugano hosts Servette at the Stadio di Cornaredo

Super League match on September 3, 2026, 8:30 PM

Second-placed Lugano (12 points) faces tenth-placed Servette (4 points)

Lugano aims to challenge for the top spot while Servette needs points to climb

Form

Lugano in strong form across all competitions with WDWDW

They recorded 3 wins and 2 draws in their last five games

Servette has been inconsistent with WLLWD showing 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

Lugano enters this match undefeated in recent games

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Lugano averages 1.55 goals scored and 1.11 goals conceded per game this season

Strong home defense for Lugano with only 0.87 goals conceded per game at Stadio di Cornaredo

Servette is strong offensively with 1.87 goals per match but concedes 1.66 on average

Away from home Servette concedes an average of 1.89 goals per game

Head-to-Head

Historical advantage lies with the visitors

In the last 5 head-to-head matches Servette achieved 3 wins, Lugano 1 win, and 1 match ended in a draw

The last meeting on February 11, 2026, ended in a 1-1 draw

Servette scored 11 goals in these matches compared to 7 for Lugano

Key Players

Miroslav Stevanovic shines for the visitors with 14 goals, 7 assists, and a 7.32 rating

Samuel Mraz has contributed 10 goals and 2 assists this season

Renato Steffen is key for the attack with 8 goals and 3 assists

Not in squad for Servette is Florian Ayé (11 goals, 2 assists)

Goalkeepers

David von Ballmoos guards Lugano's goal, keeping 12 clean sheets this season

Edvinas Gertmonas starts for Servette, whose defense has recorded 9 clean sheets overall

Influences

The match is played on natural grass at Stadio di Cornaredo

The venue history shows an average of 2.8 goals scored per game

Lugano benefits from solid defensive statistics in their home stadium

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