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Super League

Basel - Lugano

09/06/2026, 02:30 PM

1 : 3
Expected Goals
Basel
1.6
Total xG
3.1
Lugano
1.5
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:2

7%

2:0

6%
What influences the xG?
BASLUG

Basel

Attack weakness (0.64x league average)
-1.08
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.64
Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 2 league avg)
-0.40
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.15
Rising form (2 vs 1.5 season average)
+0.15
Full strength squad available

Lugano

Attack weakness (0.7x league average)
-1.06
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
+0.76
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.65
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.07
Kevin Behrens not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (1.3 vs 1.8 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match)
+1.34
+1.34
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Lugano: 5 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)

  • 2
    Lugano: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)

  • 3
    Basel: opponent scores first in 9 of 12 games (75%)

  • 4
    Basel: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 5
    Yanis Cimignani: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)

  • 6
    Lugano: 8 of 26 goals scored by substitutes (last 9 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

39%

Draw

27%

Away Win

35%

Goals

Over 1.5

83%

Under 1.5

17%

Over 2.5

60%

Under 2.5

40%

Over 3.5

38%

Under 3.5

62%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

65%

Away or Draw

61%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

64%

No

36%

Key Factors
  • Basel currently has only 20% of their seasonal goal-scoring threat available
  • Basel currently scores an average of 2.0 goals, which is higher than their season average of 1.5
  • Basel averaged 4.6 shots on target in recent matches compared to Lugano's 4.0
Risk Factors
  • Basel with only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Lugano with only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Limited data on expected goals for Lugano's recent matches
Overview

Basel (3rd place, 10 points) hosts Lugano (2nd place, 15 points) at St. Jakob-Park

Super League match on September 6, 2026, 4:30 PM

Lugano arrives undefeated in second place

Basel aims to reduce the gap and utilize their home advantage

Form

Basel shows mixed form with LWWDL

Most recently they suffered a 1-2 home defeat against Sion

They recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last 5 matches

Lugano arrives in strong form with DWDWW

Most recently they secured a 1-0 home win against Servette

They registered 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 games

Statistics

Basel scores an average of 1.45 goals per game this season while conceding 1.53

In home games Basel averages 1.45 goals scored and 1.05 goals conceded

Lugano averages 1.55 goals scored per match and allows 1.11 goals conceded

In away games Lugano concedes an average of 1.47 goals and scores 1.53

St. Jakob-Park sees an average of 3.6 goals per game

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches Lugano won 3 times, Basel won once, and there was 1 draw

The last encounter ended in a clear 4-0 home win for Lugano on May 17, 2026

The goal difference of these matches is 11-7 in favor of Lugano

Lugano enters this matchup as the historically dominant side

Key Players

Asane Sow scored 3 goals and provided 3 assists in 6 matches with a rating of 7.13

Zan Celar already scored 4 times in 6 appearances this season

Kazeem Olaigbe contributed 2 goals and 1 assist in 6 games

Anto Grgic provided 4 assists in 5 appearances for Lugano with a strong rating of 7.73

Dereck Moncada has already scored 3 goals in 5 games

Renato Steffen contributes 1 goal and 1 assist from 5 matches with a rating of 7.45

Goalkeepers

Jonas Omlin starts in goal for Basel and has an average rating of 6.41

David von Ballmoos guards the goal for Lugano with an average rating of 6.98

Basel kept 9 clean sheets in total this season

Lugano recorded 12 clean sheets so far in this campaign

Influences

The match is played on natural grass at St. Jakob-Park

The stadium features a high scoring rate of average 3.6 goals per match

The rate for matches with both teams scoring at this venue is 80%

Basel scores average 1.45 goals and concedes 1.05 at home

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