Match report →
Basel – Lugano1 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Basel
1.60
Total xG
3.11
Lugano
1.51
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Basel | Lugano |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.34 | +1.34 |
| Attack weakness (0.64x league average) | −1.08 | |
| Attack weakness (0.7x league average) | −1.06 | |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | +0.76 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.65 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.64 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 2 league avg) | −0.40 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.15 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| Kevin Behrens not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.3 vs 1.8 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Basel currently has only 20% of their seasonal goal-scoring threat available
- Basel currently scores an average of 2.0 goals, which is higher than their season average of 1.5
- Basel averaged 4.6 shots on target in recent matches compared to Lugano's 4.0
Risks
- Basel with only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Lugano with only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Limited data on expected goals for Lugano's recent matches
All probabilities
Result
Basel39%
Draw27%
Lugano35%
Double chance
Basel or draw65%
Lugano or draw61%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.560%
Under 2.540%
Over 3.538%
Under 3.562%
Both teams score
Yes64%
No36%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:2
7%
2:0
6%
1:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Lugano: 5 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)
- Lugano: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Basel: opponent scores first in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Basel: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Yanis Cimignani: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Lugano: 8 of 26 goals scored by substitutes (last 9 games)
Lineups
Basel 4-3-3 · Lugano 3-5-2
Basel
- 1 J. Omlin
- 6 K. Tsunemoto
- 24 F. Daniliuc
- 55 A. Victory Maduabuchukwu
- 3 N. Vouilloz
- 44 J. Harder
- 4 B. Omeragic
- 8 L. Malachowski Thorell
- 18 A. Sow
- 9 Ž. Celar
- 11 K. Olaigbe
Lugano
- 16 D. von Ballmoos
- 6 A. Papadopoulos
- 17 L. Mai
- 3 H. Delcroix
- 2 B. Karimov
- 25 U. Bislimi
- 8 A. Grgic
- 27 D. dos Santos Correia
- 21 Y. Cimignani
- 11 R. Steffen
- 30 D. Moncada
Substitutes
- 10 X. Shaqiri
- 5 A. Silu
- 14 A. Bačanin
- 13 M. Salvi
- 27 K. Rüegg
- 7 P. Otele
- 17 A. Malouda
- 37 G. Koloto
- 41 J. Doucoure
- 9 A. Ajeti
- 4 D. Kelvin
- 14 A. Kendouci
- 24 E. Pihlström
- 44 J. Schlickmann Carbone
- 23 G. Ajdin
- 18 J. Bichsel
- 22 B. Castro Espinosa
- 28 F. Gebhardt
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