Match report →
Servette – St. Gallen0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Servette
1.84
Total xG
3.47
St. Gallen
1.63
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Servette | St. Gallen |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.51x league average) | −1.35 | |
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.34 | +1.34 |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | +1.11 | |
| Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 2 league avg) | −0.36 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.27 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.7 season average) | −0.27 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.13 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 6, 6 places gap) | −0.12 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 12, 6 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| 26% of goal output missing (only 80% available) | ||
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Severe squad impact for Servette with only 6% of the season's goal production available in the lineup
- St. Gallen averaged 6.8 shots on target in recent matches showing strong tactical offensive metrics
- The model calculates a high 69% probability for both teams to score
Risks
- Fatigue risk for Servette with only 3 days since their last match
- St. Gallen conceded an average of 2.2 goals recently according to advanced metrics
- Servette's current goal-scoring slump averaging only 0.8 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.7
All probabilities
Result
Servette42%
Draw25%
St. Gallen33%
Double chance
Servette or draw67%
St. Gallen or draw58%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.567%
Under 2.533%
Over 3.546%
Under 3.554%
Both teams score
Yes69%
No31%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:2
7%
2:0
5%
0:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- St. Gallen: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- St. Gallen: 70% of all goals in the second half (16 of 23, last 12 games)
- St. Gallen: 30% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (7 of 23)
Lineups
Servette 4-2-3-1 · St. Gallen 3-1-4-2
Servette
- 1 E. Gertmonas
- 17 H. Mendes
- 4 S. Rouiller
- 15 M. Burch
- 18 B. Mazikou
- 6 P. Naressi Machado
- 8 T. Cognat
- 22 M. Lambourde
- 9 M. Stevanović
- 77 T. Ouattara
- 7 K. Mutandwa
St. Gallen
- 1 L. Ati-Zigi
- 3 C. Kleine-Bekel
- 4 J. Stanic
- 36 C. Okoroji
- 10 L. Daschner
- 28 H. Vandermersch
- 16 L. Görtler
- 11 C. Boukhalfa
- 64 M. Stevanovic
- 7 C. Witzig
- 14 A. Balde
Substitutes
- 28 D. Douline
- 34 T. Allix
- 14 L. Njoh
- 90 S. Mráz
- 23 Q. Maceiras
- 27 D. Fofana
- 20 J. Simo
- 44 L.Rieder
- 37 S. Djoho
- 31 D. Besio
- 25 L. Watkowiak
- 6 B. Neziri
- 47 E. Owusu
- 74 J. Ruiz
- 70 N. Scherrer
- 20 L. Frokaj
- 68 M. Heydari
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