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Grasshopper – Zürich2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Grasshopper
1.78
Total xG
3.39
Zürich
1.61
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Grasshopper | Zürich |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.26 | +1.26 |
| Attack weakness (0.74x league average) | −0.66 | |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | +0.47 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.31 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.08 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.08 | |
| Defensive strength (2 conceded vs 2 league avg) | +0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| 16% of goal output missing (only 92% available) | ||
| Philippe Paulin Keny on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 14% of goal output missing (only 74% available) | ||
| Strong home record (2 vs 1.3 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Zürich is missing Philippe Paulin Keny, leaving them with only 74% of their usual starting strength
- Zürich averaged 4.6 shots on target in recent matches
- The mathematical model projects a high probability of 68% for both teams to score
Risks
- Grasshopper enters this match with only 3 days of rest since their last game
- Zürich concedes an average of 2.25 goals per away game
All probabilities
Result
Grasshopper41%
Draw25%
Zürich34%
Double chance
Grasshopper or draw66%
Zürich or draw59%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.586%
Under 1.514%
Over 2.566%
Under 2.534%
Over 3.544%
Under 3.556%
Both teams score
Yes68%
No32%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:2
7%
2:0
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Zürich: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Grasshopper: 39% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (7 of 18)
- Zürich: dropped a lead in 4 of 7 games (11 points lost)
- Grasshopper: dropped a lead in 5 of 9 games (15 points lost)
- Grasshopper: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Grasshopper: 61% of all goals in the first half (11 of 18, last 12 games)
Lineups
Grasshopper 4-3-3 · Zürich 4-1-4-1
Grasshopper
- 1 M. Hübel
- 28 S. Stroscio
- 58 Y. Bettkober
- 44 B. Pllana
- 57 N. Rissi
- 10 Ó. Clemente Mues
- 66 M. Gibelalde Mujika
- 6 A. Abrashi
- 60 S. Bengondo
- 9 N. Muci
- 17 S. Krasniqi
Zürich
- 1 S. Huber
- 47 D. Lichtenstein
- 2 L. Kamberi
- 42 A. Hack
- 44 S. Walker
- 21 L. Schödler
- 17 K. Spadanuda
- 38 M. Reichmuth
- 7 B. Krasniqi
- 11 U. Emmanuel
- 29 D. Reverson
Substitutes
- 18 Y. Lee
- 34 A. Arigoni
- 15 A. Diaby
- 7 L. Plange
- 5 H. Imourane
- 71 J. Hammel
- 11 G. Morandi
- 4 L. Mikulić
- 55 D.Papic
- 19 P. Keny
- 18 M. Bangoura
- 43 N. Volken
- 13 H. Lindner
- 48 D. Ihendu
- 49 D. Ramić
- 14 N. Di Giusto
- 23 V. Berisha
- 6 C. Fiorini
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