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Vaduz – Lausanne Sport3 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Vaduz
1.89
Total xG
3.25
Lausanne Sport
1.36
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Vaduz | Lausanne Sport |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.26 | +1.26 |
| Attack weakness (0.49x league average) | −1.04 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.62 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.21 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.7 season average) | +0.21 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.21 | |
| Attack strength (1.23x league average) | −0.20 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.15 | |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | +0.12 | |
| 21% of goal output missing (only 86% available) | ||
| Strong home record (2.1 vs 1.7 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.5 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Offensive advantage for Vaduz: The home side averaged 5.6 shots on target in recent matches compared to Lausanne Sport's average of 2.6
- Rising home attack: Vaduz are scoring more frequently in recent matches (2.4 goals) compared to their season average of 1.7
- High-scoring matchup according to model: Mathematical predictions estimate a 63% probability for over 2.5 goals
Risks
- High workload: Both teams have a very short recovery period with only 3 days since their last match
- Defensive vulnerability of the visitors: Lausanne Sport concede an average of 2.43 goals in away matches
- Limited data regarding head-to-head history
All probabilities
Result
Vaduz49%
Draw25%
Lausanne Sport27%
Double chance
Vaduz or draw74%
Lausanne Sport or draw52%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.563%
Under 2.537%
Over 3.541%
Under 3.559%
Both teams score
Yes64%
No36%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
2:1
9%
2:0
7%
1:2
7%
2:2
6%
3:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Vaduz: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Lausanne Sport: 3.2 cards per game (38 yellows, 1 reds in 12 games)
- Vaduz: goal in the first 15 minutes in 6 of 12 games (50%)
- Vaduz: dropped a lead in 4 of 7 games (11 points lost)
- Lausanne Sport: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (8 points lost)
Lineups
Vaduz 4-3-1-2 · Lausanne Sport 4-2-3-1
Vaduz
- 25 L. Schaffran
- 4 N. Hasler
- 6 D. Simani
- 5 L. Berisha
- 7 D. Schwizer
- 17 J. Stark
- 20 L. Mack
- 10 J. Cabrera
- 28 M. Cocic
- 9 M. Michael Monsberger
- 11 L. Dalipi
Lausanne Sport
- 90 M. Mastil
- 6 T. Bergvall
- 71 A. Sow
- 31 N. Cozza
- 18 M. Poaty
- 10 O. Custodio Da Costa
- 47 P. NDiaye
- 2 B. Soppy
- 91 F. Mollet
- 77 L. Nene
- 78 O. Janneh Susso
Substitutes
- 27 N. Lang
- 14 M. Beeli
- 22 M. Eberhard
- 1 B. Büchel
- 23 M. Hammerich
- 29 M. Sawadogo
- 19 D. Djokic
- 30 M. Walker
- 18 D. Kasper
- 1 T. Castella
- 7 A. Ajdini
- 11 N. Butler-Oyedeji
- 17 S. Traore
- 88 K. Koindredi
- 4 É. Kinkoue
- 9 E. Honoré Molébé
- 80 S. Koné
- 5 D. Ngonzo
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