Match report →
Sion – Thun3 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Sion
2.34
Total xG
3.81
Thun
1.47
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Sion | Thun |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.34 | +1.34 |
| Attack weakness (0.51x league average) | −0.87 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.66 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.53 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.15 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.09 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Strong home record (2.5 vs 2 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1.4 vs 2.1 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Visitor squad impact crisis: Thun have only 10% of their active seasonal goal production available due to absences
- Home side tactical superiority: Sion averaged 5.0 shots on target in recent matches
- Strong home defense: Sion concede an average of only 0.82 goals per home match this season
Risks
- High match load for the hosts with only 3 days of rest since their last game
- Incomplete data situation regarding the unknown injuries of M. Gutbub and R. Braschi
All probabilities
Result
Sion56%
Draw21%
Thun22%
Double chance
Sion or draw78%
Thun or draw44%
No draw79%
Goals
Over 1.590%
Under 1.510%
Over 2.573%
Under 2.527%
Over 3.553%
Under 3.547%
Both teams score
Yes71%
No29%
Most likely scores
2:1
9%
3:1
7%
2:2
7%
1:2
6%
3:2
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Sion: 10 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Sion: 7 of 20 goals scored by substitutes (last 9 games)
- Thun: 9 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Sion: 3 comebacks in 6 games after trailing past minute 75 (7 points rescued)
- Thun: dropped a lead in 4 of 7 games (10 points lost)
- Sion: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Sion 4-1-4-1 · Thun 4-4-2
Sion
- 1 A. Racioppi
- 14 N. Lavanchy
- 5 N. Sow
- 17 J. Kronig
- 6 M. Cipriano
- 88 A. Kabacalman
- 77 D. Rrudhani
- 37 F. Sylla
- 8 B. Costa Rodrigues de Oliveira
- 19 F. Surdez
- 13 W. Boteli
Thun
- 1 N. Steffen
- 47 F. Fehr
- 19 J. Bamert
- 23 M. Bürki
- 2 O. Mambwa
- 70 N. Reichmuth
- 14 M. Käit
- 8 F. Saiz Pennarossa
- 21 D. Derbaci
- 96 B. Labeau Melchior
- 9 F. Dursun
Substitutes
- 9 J. Lukembila
- 7 I. Chouaref
- 22 A. Llukes
- 12 F. Ruberto
- 20 N. Hefti
- 10 B. Kololli
- 21 L. Chipperfield
- 33 R. Nivokazi
- 55 L. Villa
- 37 L. Dähler
- 16 J. Roth
- 25 T. Spycher
- 30 N. Maier
- 5 N. Bürgy
- 13 N. Zoukit
- 80 S. Lengen
- 18 T. Strannegard
- 26 N. Christoffersson
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