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Super League

Young Boys - Luzern

09/05/2026, 04:00 PM

3 : 3
Expected Goals
Young Boys
2.0
Total xG
3.7
Luzern
1.7
Most Likely Scores

2:1

9%

2:2

7%

1:2

7%

3:1

6%

3:2

5%
What influences the xG?
YBLUZ

Young Boys

5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.8 goals/match)
+0.47
Rising form (3.8 vs 2.2 season average)
+0.47
Attack strength (1.24x league average)
+0.14
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
-0.06
Joƫl Monteiro not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists)
Stefan Bukinac on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)

Luzern

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.22
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.9 season average)
-0.22
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.20
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.9 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match)
+1.26
+1.26
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Young Boys: 9 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Luzern: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Luzern: 76% of all goals in the second half (16 of 21, last 12 games)

  • 4
    Young Boys with Samuel Essende starting: 2.9 goals/game, without him: 1.7 (16/11 games, last 30)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

46%

Draw

23%

Away Win

31%

Goals

Over 1.5

89%

Under 1.5

11%

Over 2.5

71%

Under 2.5

29%

Over 3.5

51%

Under 3.5

49%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

69%

Away or Draw

54%

No Draw

77%

Both Score

Yes

72%

No

28%

Key Factors
  • Attacking form: Young Boys are scoring more frequently (3.8) than their season average (2.3)
  • Tactical advantage: Young Boys averaged 9.0 shots on target in recent matches
  • Historical edge: Young Boys won 4 of their last 5 head-to-head matches against Luzern
Risk Factors
  • Severe attacking shortage: Luzern only have 9% of their seasonal goal production active in this lineup
  • Defensive vulnerability: Young Boys concede an average of 1.82 goals per game this season
Overview

Young Boys (2nd place, 14 points) host Luzern (5th place, 8 points) at Stadion Wankdorf

Super League match on September 5, 2026, 6:00 PM

Young Boys aim to close the gap to the top of the table

Form

Young Boys show stable form with WDWDW

Luzern enter the match with form LDWDW

The hosts recorded 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 games

Luzern registered 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss

Form code: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Young Boys average 2.15 goals scored in home matches

The hosts concede an average of 1.25 goals at home

Luzern average 2.00 goals scored in away games

The visitors concede an average of 1.65 goals on the road

Head-to-Head

There have been 5 head-to-head matches

Young Boys won 4 times, while Luzern secured 1 victory

The last meeting ended in a 2-1 win for Young Boys

Key Players

Samuel Essende leads the attack with 5 goals and 3 assists

Alvyn Sanches contributes 3 goals and 2 assists for the hosts

Matteo Di Giusto is the top scorer for the visitors with 2 goals and 1 assist

Goalkeepers

Marvin Keller guards the home goal with an average rating of 6.78

Karlo Letica features in goal for Luzern with a 6.89 rating

Young Boys have kept 8 clean sheets, compared to 7 for Luzern

Influences

Matches at Stadion Wankdorf historically average 5.4 goals per game

The mathematical model projects 2.05 expected home goals and 1.66 expected away goals

The calculated home win probability is 46%

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