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Young Boys – Luzern3 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Young Boys
2.05
Total xG
3.70
Luzern
1.66
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Young Boys | Luzern |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.26 | +1.26 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.8 goals/match) | +0.47 | |
| Rising form (3.8 vs 2.2 season average) | +0.47 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.22 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.9 season average) | −0.22 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.20 | |
| Attack strength (1.24x league average) | +0.14 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.06 | |
| Joël Monteiro not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Stefan Bukinac on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.9 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Attacking form: Young Boys are scoring more frequently (3.8) than their season average (2.3)
- Tactical advantage: Young Boys averaged 9.0 shots on target in recent matches
- Historical edge: Young Boys won 4 of their last 5 head-to-head matches against Luzern
Risks
- Severe attacking shortage: Luzern only have 9% of their seasonal goal production active in this lineup
- Defensive vulnerability: Young Boys concede an average of 1.82 goals per game this season
All probabilities
Result
Young Boys46%
Draw23%
Luzern31%
Double chance
Young Boys or draw69%
Luzern or draw54%
No draw77%
Goals
Over 1.589%
Under 1.511%
Over 2.571%
Under 2.529%
Over 3.551%
Under 3.549%
Both teams score
Yes72%
No28%
Most likely scores
2:1
9%
2:2
7%
1:2
7%
3:1
6%
3:2
5%
3:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Young Boys: 9 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Luzern: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Luzern: 76% of all goals in the second half (16 of 21, last 12 games)
- Young Boys with Samuel Essende starting: 2.9 goals/game, without him: 1.7 (16/11 games, last 30)
Lineups
Young Boys 4-4-1-1 · Luzern 4-4-2
Young Boys
- 1 M. Keller
- 27 L. Blum
- 30 S. Lauper
- 23 L. Benito
- 22 I. Schmidt
- 16 C. Fassnacht
- 8 A. Gigovic
- 6 E. Fernandes
- 7 A. Virginius
- 10 A. Antonio Sanches
- 99 S. Essende
Luzern
- 30 K. Letica
- 22 R. Fernandes
- 13 B. Freimann
- 46 B. Freimann
- 14 A. Cigaņiks
- 24 T. Owusu
- 80 Mio Zimmermann
- 6 L. Bertone
- 11 M. Di Giusto
- 15 N. Toggenburg
- 19 D. Mikołajewski
Substitutes
- 18 J. Mall
- 13 D. Pech
- 17 S. Janko
- 12 B. Guirassy
- 9 M. Sene
- 33 S. Bukinac
- 34 E. Etoski
- 52 N. Tschanz
- 54 S. Ubaka
- 21 L. Lüthi
- 10 L. Silva Ferreira
- 17 S. Wyss
- 29 L. Winkler
- 5 S. Knežević
- 27 V. Villiger
- 7 A. Oehlers
- 1 S. Simoni
- 18 B. Beenga
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