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Zürich – Vaduz2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Zürich
1.62
Total xG
3.37
Vaduz
1.75
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Zürich | Vaduz |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.7 goals/match) | +1.24 | +1.24 |
| Attack weakness (0.73x league average) | −0.63 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.38 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.24 | |
| Rising form (2.6 vs 1.8 season average) | +0.24 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.20 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.08 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.08 | |
| Strong home record (1.8 vs 1.3 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Massive squad impact for Zürich: Only 22% of seasonal goal production is currently available in the active lineup
- Offensive strength for Vaduz: Concluding recent matches with a strong average of 7.0 shots on target per game
- Home and away trends: Matches at Stadion Letzigrund historically average a high count of 4.0 goals per game
Risks
- Catastrophic away defense for Vaduz with an average of 3.67 goals conceded per game on the road
- Lack of defensive stability for Vaduz with 0 clean sheets recorded in the ongoing season
- Defensive problems on both sides with Zürich conceding 1.89 on average and Vaduz 2.43 per match
All probabilities
Result
Zürich35%
Draw25%
Vaduz40%
Double chance
Zürich or draw60%
Vaduz or draw65%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.586%
Under 1.514%
Over 2.565%
Under 2.535%
Over 3.544%
Under 3.556%
Both teams score
Yes68%
No32%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
2:2
7%
0:2
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Zürich: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Vaduz: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Zürich: dropped a lead in 5 of 8 games (13 points lost)
- Vaduz: goal in the first 15 minutes in 6 of 12 games (50%)
- Zürich: 73% of all goals in the second half (11 of 15, last 12 games)
- Vaduz: 32% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (8 of 25)
Lineups
Zürich 4-4-2 · Vaduz 4-3-1-2
Zürich
- 1 S. Huber
- 47 D. Lichtenstein
- 2 L. Kamberi
- 21 L. Schödler
- 43 N. Volken
- 8 L. Comenencia
- 38 M. Reichmuth
- 7 B. Krasniqi
- 11 U. Emmanuel
- 19 P. Keny
- 29 D. Reverson
Vaduz
- 1 B. Büchel
- 4 N. Hasler
- 6 D. Simani
- 5 L. Berisha
- 7 D. Schwizer
- 17 J. Stark
- 20 L. Mack
- 10 J. Cabrera
- 28 M. Cocic
- 9 M. Michael Monsberger
- 11 L. Dalipi
Substitutes
- 17 K. Spadanuda
- 4 J. Segura Portocarrero
- 18 M. Bangoura
- 13 H. Lindner
- 46 J. Stiel
- 49 D. Ramić
- 14 N. Di Giusto
- 23 V. Berisha
- 6 C. Fiorini
- 27 N. Lang
- 14 M. Beeli
- 23 M. Hammerich
- 29 M. Sawadogo
- 19 D. Djokic
- 30 M. Walker
- 37 L. Celentano
- 38 N. Föllmi
- 18 D. Kasper
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