Match report →
Thun – Grasshopper0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Thun
1.63
Total xG
3.28
Grasshopper
1.65
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Thun | Grasshopper |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.32 | +1.32 |
| Attack weakness (0.47x league average) | −1.19 | |
| Attack weakness (0.65x league average) | −0.90 | |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | +0.85 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.70 | |
| Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 2 league avg) | −0.22 | |
| Defensive strength (2 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | +0.20 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.08 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.08 | |
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Only 17% of goal-scoring threat available for Grasshopper based on squad impact
- Grasshopper averaged 5.0 shots on target in recent matches, displaying offensive strength
- High model probability of goals on both sides with 66% for BTTS and over 1.6 expected goals per team
Risks
- Grasshopper concedes an average of 2.35 goals per away game
- Grasshopper remains winless on artificial turf with 0 wins in 2 games
All probabilities
Result
Thun37%
Draw26%
Grasshopper38%
Double chance
Thun or draw62%
Grasshopper or draw63%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.564%
Under 2.536%
Over 3.541%
Under 3.559%
Both teams score
Yes66%
No34%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
2:2
7%
0:2
5%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Thun: 9 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Thun: dropped a lead in 5 of 8 games (13 points lost)
- Grasshopper: 35% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (7 of 20)
- Grasshopper: dropped a lead in 5 of 9 games (15 points lost)
- Grasshopper: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Thun: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)
Lineups
Thun 4-2-2-2 · Grasshopper 4-3-3
Thun
- 1 N. Steffen
- 47 F. Fehr
- 19 J. Bamert
- 23 M. Bürki
- 18 T. Strannegard
- 16 J. Roth
- 13 N. Zoukit
- 70 N. Reichmuth
- 8 F. Saiz Pennarossa
- 9 F. Dursun
- 96 B. Labeau Melchior
Grasshopper
- 1 M. Hübel
- 28 S. Stroscio
- 58 Y. Bettkober
- 44 B. Pllana
- 57 N. Rissi
- 10 Ó. Clemente Mues
- 66 M. Gibelalde Mujika
- 6 A. Abrashi
- 60 S. Bengondo
- 9 N. Muci
- 17 S. Krasniqi
Substitutes
- 37 L. Dähler
- 14 M. Käit
- 25 T. Spycher
- 2 O. Mambwa
- 15 P. Kristal
- 30 N. Maier
- 5 N. Bürgy
- 80 S. Lengen
- 26 N. Christoffersson
- 18 Y. Lee
- 34 A. Arigoni
- 15 A. Diaby
- 7 L. Plange
- 71 J. Hammel
- 23 S. Marques
- 11 G. Morandi
- 24 K. Goudmijn
- 55 D.Papic
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