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Super League

Lugano - Young Boys

09/12/2026, 05:00 PM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
Lugano
1.7
Total xG
3.5
Young Boys
1.9
Most Likely Scores

1:2

9%

2:1

8%

2:2

7%

1:3

5%

2:3

4%
What influences the xG?
LUGYB

Lugano

Attack weakness (0.63x league average)
-0.82
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 2 league avg)
-0.81
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.50
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.01
Full strength squad available

Young Boys

Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.43
Attack strength (1.41x league average)
-0.41
5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.2 goals/match)
+0.28
Rising form (3.2 vs 2.3 season average)
+0.28
Lewin Blum on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists)
Joël Monteiro not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists)
13% of goal output missing (only 80% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match)
+1.32
+1.32
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Young Boys: 10 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Lugano: 5 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)

  • 3
    Young Boys with Samuel Essende starting: 2.9 goals/game, without him: 1.7 (17/10 games, last 30)

  • 4
    Lugano: 8 of 25 goals scored by substitutes (last 9 games)

  • 5
    Lugano: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)

  • 6
    Young Boys: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

33%

Draw

24%

Away Win

42%

Goals

Over 1.5

88%

Under 1.5

12%

Over 2.5

68%

Under 2.5

32%

Over 3.5

47%

Under 3.5

53%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

58%

Away or Draw

67%

No Draw

76%

Both Score

Yes

70%

No

30%

Key Factors
  • Only 25% of Lugano's regular goal production is available in the current squad
  • Young Boys averaged a strong 8.2 shots on target per match in recent games
  • The mathematical model expects a high-scoring game with a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals
Risk Factors
  • Lugano averaged only 3.2 shots on target per match in recent games
  • Young Boys concede an average of 2.44 goals per away game this season
Overview

Top-of-the-table clash in the Super League on September 12, 2026, 7:00 PM

League leaders Lugano (1st place, 18 points) host second-placed Young Boys (2nd place, 15 points) at the Stadio di Cornaredo

A crucial battle for the top spot in the standings

Form

Lugano is in excellent shape with a recent form of WDWWW

The home side registered 4 wins and 1 draw in their recent matches

The visitors from Bern are also stable with a form of DWDWD

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Lugano scores an average of 1.55 goals per game while conceding 1.11 this season

At home, their defense is solid, conceding only 0.87 goals per match

Young Boys boasts a strong offense with 2.11 goals scored per game but struggles defensively away from home, conceding 2.44 goals per match

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lugano won 2 times, Young Boys won once, with 2 draws

The goal difference in these matches is 7:5 in favor of Lugano

The last encounter ended in a 1:0 home win for Lugano on May 3, 2026

Key Players

For Lugano, midfielder Anto Grgic stands out with a 7.64 rating and 4 assists

Renato Steffen adds threat in attack with 1 goal and 2 assists

For the visitors, forward Samuel Essende shines with 7 goals and 3 assists

Additionally, Lewin Blum (2 goals, 3 assists) and Joël Monteiro (3 goals, 1 assist) are not in the starting lineup

Goalkeepers

David von Ballmoos starts in goal for Lugano with a season average rating of 6.89

Marvin Keller starts for Young Boys, holding an average rating of 6.77

Lugano kept 12 clean sheets this season, compared to 8 for Young Boys

Influences

The match will be played on grass at the Stadio di Cornaredo

Historical venue stats show an average of 2.8 goals per match on this pitch

Both teams scored in 40% of historical matches at this venue

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