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Lugano – Young Boys2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Lugano
1.65
Total xG
3.52
Young Boys
1.87
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Lugano | Young Boys |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.32 | +1.32 |
| Attack weakness (0.63x league average) | −0.82 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 2 league avg) | −0.81 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.50 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.43 | |
| Attack strength (1.41x league average) | −0.41 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.2 goals/match) | +0.28 | |
| Rising form (3.2 vs 2.3 season average) | +0.28 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Lewin Blum on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Joël Monteiro not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 13% of goal output missing (only 80% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Only 25% of Lugano's regular goal production is available in the current squad
- Young Boys averaged a strong 8.2 shots on target per match in recent games
- The mathematical model expects a high-scoring game with a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals
Risks
- Lugano averaged only 3.2 shots on target per match in recent games
- Young Boys concede an average of 2.44 goals per away game this season
All probabilities
Result
Lugano33%
Draw24%
Young Boys42%
Double chance
Lugano or draw58%
Young Boys or draw67%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.588%
Under 1.512%
Over 2.568%
Under 2.532%
Over 3.547%
Under 3.553%
Both teams score
Yes70%
No30%
Most likely scores
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
2:2
7%
1:3
5%
2:3
4%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Young Boys: 10 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Lugano: 5 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)
- Young Boys with Samuel Essende starting: 2.9 goals/game, without him: 1.7 (17/10 games, last 30)
- Lugano: 8 of 25 goals scored by substitutes (last 9 games)
- Lugano: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Young Boys: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Lugano 3-5-2 · Young Boys 4-2-3-1
Lugano
- 16 D. von Ballmoos
- 6 A. Papadopoulos
- 17 L. Mai
- 3 H. Delcroix
- 2 B. Karimov
- 25 U. Bislimi
- 8 A. Grgic
- 27 D. dos Santos Correia
- 21 Y. Cimignani
- 11 R. Steffen
- 30 D. Moncada
Young Boys
- 1 M. Keller
- 22 I. Schmidt
- 30 S. Lauper
- 23 L. Benito
- 33 S. Bukinac
- 8 A. Gigovic
- 6 E. Fernandes
- 16 C. Fassnacht
- 10 A. Antonio Sanches
- 7 A. Virginius
- 99 S. Essende
Substitutes
- 9 A. Ajeti
- 7 E. Alioski
- 4 D. Kelvin
- 14 A. Kendouci
- 24 E. Pihlström
- 23 G. Ajdin
- 18 J. Bichsel
- 22 B. Castro Espinosa
- 28 F. Gebhardt
- 4 M. Jenz
- 18 J. Mall
- 13 D. Pech
- 17 S. Janko
- 12 B. Guirassy
- 9 M. Sene
- 27 L. Blum
- 34 E. Etoski
- 52 N. Tschanz
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