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Super League

Luzern - Basel

09/13/2026, 02:30 PM

2 : 4
Expected Goals
Luzern
1.8
Total xG
3.3
Basel
1.5
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

2:1

9%

1:2

7%

2:2

7%

2:0

6%
What influences the xG?
LUZBAS

Luzern

Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.09
Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
-0.08
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.04

Basel

Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.37
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.22
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.5 season average)
+0.22
Asane Sow not in squad (3 goals, 4 assists)
16% of goal output missing (only 71% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.7 goals/match)
+1.24
+1.24
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Luzern: 82% of all goals in the second half (18 of 22, last 12 games)

  • 2
    Basel: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Luzern: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 4
    Basel: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)

  • 5
    Luzern: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)

  • 6
    Luzern: 32% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (7 of 22)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

44%

Draw

25%

Away Win

31%

Goals

Over 1.5

86%

Under 1.5

14%

Over 2.5

65%

Under 2.5

35%

Over 3.5

43%

Under 3.5

57%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

69%

Away or Draw

56%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

67%

No

33%

Key Factors
  • Form disparity: Luzern remains unbeaten in their last 5 games, whereas Basel suffered two consecutive defeats recently
  • Luzern's efficient counter-tactics: The hosts averaged 5.4 shots on target with only 42% possession in recent matches
  • Significant squad impact: Basel misses playmaker Asane Sow, leaving them with only 71% of their active goals share
Risk Factors
  • Vulnerable away defense: Basel concedes an average of 2.06 goals per away match
  • Goalkeeper replacement: The injured Jonas Omlin has to be replaced by Mirko Salvi
  • Luzern's home defensive leaks: The hosts concede an average of 1.81 goals per home game
Overview

Luzern hosts Basel at the swissporarena

Super League match on September 13, 2026, 4:30 PM

Luzern is in 6th place with 9 points, Basel is in 4th place with 10 points

A tight midfield battle is expected

Form

Luzern is unbeaten in 5 matches with the form DWDWD (2 wins, 3 draws)

Basel travels with the form WWDLL after consecutive defeats (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses)

Luzern shows a more stable form curve

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Luzern consistently scores around 1.9 goals per game

Luzern concedes an average of 1.81 goals at home

Basel is currently scoring more frequently with 2.2 goals compared to their season average of 1.5

Basel concedes an average of 2.06 goals on their travels

Head-to-Head

The last 5 head-to-head matches show 2 wins for each team and 1 draw

The last meeting ended in a 4-2 win for Luzern

The historical goal difference is close at 8-10 in favor of Basel

Key Players

Matteo Di Giusto scored 3 goals and 1 assist in 7 games for Luzern (rating 7.37)

Andrejs Ciganiks has also scored 3 goals in 7 appearances with a rating of 7.24

For Basel, Zan Celar is the biggest threat with 4 goals and 1 assist in 7 games

Goalkeepers

Karlo Letica is in goal for Luzern (rating 7.01, 7 clean sheets this season)

Mirko Salvi guards the net for Basel (rating 6.65, 9 clean sheets overall for the team)

Influences

The swissporarena averages 3.0 goals per match

The probability for over 2.5 goals is calculated at 65%

Both teams to score is estimated at 67% probability

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