Match report →
Luzern – Basel2 : 4
Why the model thinks so
Luzern
1.83
Total xG
3.35
Basel
1.52
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Luzern | Basel |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.7 goals/match) | +1.24 | +1.24 |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.37 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.22 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.22 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.09 | |
| Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.9 league avg) | −0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Asane Sow not in squad (3 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| 16% of goal output missing (only 71% available) |
Key factors
- Form disparity: Luzern remains unbeaten in their last 5 games, whereas Basel suffered two consecutive defeats recently
- Luzern's efficient counter-tactics: The hosts averaged 5.4 shots on target with only 42% possession in recent matches
- Significant squad impact: Basel misses playmaker Asane Sow, leaving them with only 71% of their active goals share
Risks
- Vulnerable away defense: Basel concedes an average of 2.06 goals per away match
- Goalkeeper replacement: The injured Jonas Omlin has to be replaced by Mirko Salvi
- Luzern's home defensive leaks: The hosts concede an average of 1.81 goals per home game
All probabilities
Result
Luzern44%
Draw25%
Basel31%
Double chance
Luzern or draw69%
Basel or draw56%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.586%
Under 1.514%
Over 2.565%
Under 2.535%
Over 3.543%
Under 3.557%
Both teams score
Yes67%
No33%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
2:1
9%
1:2
7%
2:2
7%
2:0
6%
2:4
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Luzern: 82% of all goals in the second half (18 of 22, last 12 games)
- Basel: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Luzern: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Basel: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Luzern: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Luzern: 32% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (7 of 22)
Lineups
Luzern 4-4-2 · Basel 4-2-3-1
Luzern
- 30 K. Letica
- 22 R. Fernandes
- 13 B. Freimann
- 46 B. Freimann
- 14 A. Cigaņiks
- 24 T. Owusu
- 80 Mio Zimmermann
- 6 L. Bertone
- 11 M. Di Giusto
- 19 D. Mikołajewski
- 16 O. Kabwit tshikomb
Basel
- 13 M. Salvi
- 6 K. Tsunemoto
- 24 F. Daniliuc
- 55 A. Victory Maduabuchukwu
- 27 K. Rüegg
- 5 A. Silu
- 44 J. Harder
- 11 K. Olaigbe
- 10 X. Shaqiri
- 7 P. Otele
- 9 Ž. Celar
Substitutes
- 21 L. Lüthi
- 10 L. Silva Ferreira
- 29 L. Winkler
- 5 S. Knežević
- 27 V. Villiger
- 7 A. Oehlers
- 1 S. Simoni
- 15 N. Toggenburg
- 18 B. Beenga
- 3 N. Vouilloz
- 22 C. Michelin
- 17 A. Malouda
- 29 M. Cisse
- 37 G. Koloto
- 4 B. Omeragic
- 8 L. Malachowski Thorell
- 49 R. Widmer D’Autilia
- 41 J. Doucoure
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →