Match report →
Lausanne Sport – Servette0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Lausanne Sport
1.41
Total xG
3.11
Servette
1.70
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Lausanne Sport | Servette |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.7 goals/match) | +1.24 | +1.24 |
| Attack weakness (0.77x league average) | −1.11 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.65 | |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | +0.38 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.9 league avg) | −0.27 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.26 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.6 season average) | −0.26 | |
| Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.9 league avg) | −0.19 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.15 | |
| Florent Mollet on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 25% of goal output missing (only 71% available) | ||
| Timothé Cognat not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 28% of goal output missing (only 40% available) |
Key factors
- Critical squad impact for Servette: Only 40% of the usual starting XI strength available as Timothé Cognat is not in the lineup
- Critical squad impact for Lausanne Sport: Only 71% of the usual starting XI strength available as Florent Mollet is not in the lineup
- Tactical advantage for Servette: The visitors averaged 4.8 shots on target per match in recent games compared to Lausanne's 3.0
Risks
- Struggling attack for Servette: Goal production has stalled at an average of 0.8 goals per match in recent games
- Defensive vulnerability for Lausanne Sport: Conceded an average of 2.25 goals per match in recent outings
All probabilities
Result
Lausanne Sport31%
Draw26%
Servette43%
Double chance
Lausanne Sport or draw57%
Servette or draw69%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.560%
Under 2.540%
Over 3.538%
Under 3.562%
Both teams score
Yes63%
No37%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
0:2
6%
2:2
6%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Lausanne Sport: 3.2 cards per game (38 yellows, 1 reds in 12 games)
- Lausanne Sport: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (8 points lost)
Lineups
Lausanne Sport 3-4-2-1 · Servette 4-4-2
Lausanne Sport
- 90 M. Mastil
- 4 É. Kinkoue
- 71 A. Sow
- 31 N. Cozza
- 6 T. Bergvall
- 88 K. Koindredi
- 80 S. Koné
- 18 M. Poaty
- 77 L. Nene
- 9 E. Honoré Molébé
- 78 O. Janneh Susso
Servette
- 1 E. Gertmonas
- 23 Q. Maceiras
- 4 S. Rouiller
- 15 M. Burch
- 18 B. Mazikou
- 9 M. Stevanović
- 6 P. Naressi Machado
- 28 D. Douline
- 22 M. Lambourde
- 27 D. Fofana
- 7 K. Mutandwa
Substitutes
- 1 T. Castella
- 91 F. Mollet
- 20 H. Abdallah
- 7 A. Ajdini
- 11 N. Butler-Oyedeji
- 17 S. Traore
- 47 P. NDiaye
- 51 I. Mendes
- 5 D. Ngonzo
- 77 T. Ouattara
- 34 T. Allix
- 14 L. Njoh
- 21 J. Karlsson
- 36 T. Lopes
- 17 H. Mendes
- 20 J. Simo
- 44 L.Rieder
- 42 I. Izquierdo
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