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St. Gallen – Sion0 : 3
Why the model thinks so
St. Gallen
2.10
Total xG
3.92
Sion
1.82
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | St. Gallen | Sion |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.32 | +1.32 |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | +0.61 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 2 league avg) | −0.51 | |
| Attack strength (1.53x league average) | +0.51 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.46 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.37 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.18 | |
| Declining form (1.4 vs 2 season average) | −0.18 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.07 | |
| Lukas Görtler not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) |
Key factors
- Sion is highly efficient upfront, averaging 2.2 goals recently compared to their season average of 2.0
- St. Gallen averaged a strong 6.2 shots on target per match in recent games
- High scoring rate at Kybunpark with Avg. 5.0 goals per game and a calculated 75% BTTS probability
Risks
- St. Gallen's goal scoring has slowed down, averaging 1.4 goals recently compared to the season average of 2.0
- St. Gallen conceded an average of 2.0 goals per match in recent games
- Limited data availability regarding weather conditions
All probabilities
Result
St. Gallen44%
Draw23%
Sion33%
Double chance
St. Gallen or draw67%
Sion or draw56%
No draw77%
Goals
Over 1.591%
Under 1.59%
Over 2.575%
Under 2.525%
Over 3.555%
Under 3.545%
Both teams score
Yes75%
No25%
Most likely scores
2:1
8%
2:2
7%
1:2
7%
3:1
6%
3:2
5%
0:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Sion: 11 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Sion: opponent scores first in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- St. Gallen: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- St. Gallen: 6 of 19 goals scored by substitutes (last 11 games)
- Sion: 6 of 20 goals scored by substitutes (last 9 games)
Lineups
St. Gallen 3-5-2 · Sion 4-2-3-1
St. Gallen
- 1 L. Ati-Zigi
- 3 C. Kleine-Bekel
- 4 J. Stanic
- 36 C. Okoroji
- 28 H. Vandermersch
- 20 L. Frokaj
- 10 L. Daschner
- 11 C. Boukhalfa
- 64 M. Stevanovic
- 70 N. Scherrer
- 14 A. Balde
Sion
- 1 A. Racioppi
- 14 N. Lavanchy
- 5 N. Sow
- 17 J. Kronig
- 6 M. Cipriano
- 88 A. Kabacalman
- 8 B. Costa Rodrigues de Oliveira
- 7 I. Chouaref
- 77 D. Rrudhani
- 19 F. Surdez
- 13 W. Boteli
Substitutes
- 31 D. Besio
- 23 B. Fazliji
- 25 L. Watkowiak
- 7 C. Witzig
- 6 B. Neziri
- 47 E. Owusu
- 9 A. Hunziker
- 74 J. Ruiz
- 68 M. Heydari
- 9 J. Lukembila
- 29 T. Berdayes
- 12 F. Ruberto
- 20 N. Hefti
- 10 B. Kololli
- 21 L. Chipperfield
- 33 R. Nivokazi
- 55 L. Villa
- 38 R. Kessler
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