Match report →
Lausanne Sport – Lugano0 : 4
Why the model thinks so
Lausanne Sport
1.42
Total xG
3.12
Lugano
1.70
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Lausanne Sport | Lugano |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.9 goals/match) | +1.38 | +1.38 |
| Attack weakness (0.75x league average) | −0.91 | |
| Attack weakness (0.72x league average) | −0.61 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.59 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 2 league avg) | −0.36 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.26 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.25 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.5 season average) | −0.22 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 1, 11 places gap) | −0.18 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.16 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.9 season average) | +0.16 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 12, 11 places gap) | +0.09 | |
| Florent Mollet on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 25% of goal output missing (only 81% available) | ||
| Renato Steffen not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.5 vs 1.9 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form gap: League leaders Lugano are unbeaten (WWWDW) while Lausanne Sport are winless in their last 5 games
- Goal production: Lausanne Sport's attack is stalling (0.8 goals per match compared to a season average of 1.5), while Lugano scores 2.4 goals, above their average of 1.9
- Tactics: Lugano averaged 5.4 shots on target in recent matches, compared to Lausanne Sport's average of 3.0
Risks
- Lausanne Sport averaged only 3.0 shots on target in recent matches
- High defensive vulnerability for the hosts with 1.76 goals conceded per game on average
All probabilities
Result
Lausanne Sport31%
Draw26%
Lugano43%
Double chance
Lausanne Sport or draw57%
Lugano or draw69%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.560%
Under 2.540%
Over 3.538%
Under 3.562%
Both teams score
Yes63%
No37%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
2:2
6%
0:2
6%
0:4
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Lugano: 6 wins in 7 games with xG above 1.0 (86% win rate)
- Lugano: 3 comebacks in 3 games after trailing past minute 75 (3 points rescued)
- Lausanne Sport: 3.2 cards per game (38 yellows, 1 reds in 12 games)
- Lugano: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Lugano: 10 of 31 goals scored by substitutes (last 11 games)
- Lausanne Sport: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Lausanne Sport 3-4-3 · Lugano 3-5-1-1
Lausanne Sport
- 90 M. Mastil
- 4 É. Kinkoue
- 71 A. Sow
- 31 N. Cozza
- 2 B. Soppy
- 80 S. Koné
- 88 K. Koindredi
- 18 M. Poaty
- 51 I. Mendes
- 78 O. Janneh Susso
- 9 E. Honoré Molébé
Lugano
- 16 D. von Ballmoos
- 6 A. Papadopoulos
- 17 L. Mai
- 3 H. Delcroix
- 2 B. Karimov
- 25 U. Bislimi
- 8 A. Grgic
- 27 D. dos Santos Correia
- 21 Y. Cimignani
- 22 B. Castro Espinosa
- 30 D. Moncada
Substitutes
- 1 T. Castella
- 91 F. Mollet
- 7 A. Ajdini
- 11 N. Butler-Oyedeji
- 17 S. Traore
- 47 P. NDiaye
- 77 L. Nene
- 6 T. Bergvall
- 5 D. Ngonzo
- 9 A. Ajeti
- 4 D. Kelvin
- 14 A. Kendouci
- 26 M. Costa Marques
- 46 M. Zanotti
- 44 J. Schlickmann Carbone
- 23 G. Ajdin
- 18 J. Bichsel
- 28 F. Gebhardt
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →