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Super League

Lausanne Sport - Lugano

09/20/2026, 02:30 PM

0 : 4
Expected Goals
Lausanne Sport
1.4
Total xG
3.1
Lugano
1.7
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

1:2

9%

2:1

8%

2:2

6%

0:2

6%
What influences the xG?
LSLUG

Lausanne Sport

Attack weakness (0.72x league average)
-0.61
Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 2 league avg)
-0.36
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.26
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
+0.25
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.5 season average)
-0.22
Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 1, 11 places gap)
-0.18
Florent Mollet on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
25% of goal output missing (only 81% available)

Lugano

Attack weakness (0.75x league average)
-0.91
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.59
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.16
Rising form (2.4 vs 1.9 season average)
+0.16
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 12, 11 places gap)
+0.09
Renato Steffen not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (1.5 vs 1.9 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.9 goals/match)
+1.38
+1.38
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Lugano: 6 wins in 7 games with xG above 1.0 (86% win rate)

  • 2
    Lugano: 3 comebacks in 3 games after trailing past minute 75 (3 points rescued)

  • 3
    Lausanne Sport: 3.2 cards per game (38 yellows, 1 reds in 12 games)

  • 4
    Lugano: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 5
    Lugano: 10 of 31 goals scored by substitutes (last 11 games)

  • 6
    Lausanne Sport: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

31%

Draw

26%

Away Win

43%

Goals

Over 1.5

83%

Under 1.5

17%

Over 2.5

60%

Under 2.5

40%

Over 3.5

38%

Under 3.5

62%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

57%

Away or Draw

69%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

63%

No

37%

Key Factors
  • Form gap: League leaders Lugano are unbeaten (WWWDW) while Lausanne Sport are winless in their last 5 games
  • Goal production: Lausanne Sport's attack is stalling (0.8 goals per match compared to a season average of 1.5), while Lugano scores 2.4 goals, above their average of 1.9
  • Tactics: Lugano averaged 5.4 shots on target in recent matches, compared to Lausanne Sport's average of 3.0
Risk Factors
  • Lausanne Sport averaged only 3.0 shots on target in recent matches
  • High defensive vulnerability for the hosts with 1.76 goals conceded per game on average
Overview

Lausanne Sport hosts Lugano at the Stade de la Tuilière

Super League match on September 20, 2026, 4:30 PM

League leaders Lugano with 22 points face bottom side Lausanne Sport with 6 points

Form

Lausanne Sport is in poor form with the record LLDLL and no wins in five games

Lugano travels in top shape with the record WWWDW and four wins in their last five

Statistics

Lausanne Sport concedes an average of 1.76 goals per game

Lugano scores 1.55 goals on average and concedes only 1.11 goals

The mathematical model predicts an away win probability of 43%

Head-to-Head

The last 5 meetings are balanced with 1 win each and 3 draws

The last direct duel ended in a 2-1 victory for Lugano

Key Players

Omar Janneh has scored 1 league goal in 8 matches

Anto Grgic leads Lugano's midfield with 4 assists

Not nominated: Florent Mollet (2 goals, 1 assist)

Not nominated: Renato Steffen (1 goal, 2 assists)

Goalkeepers

M. Mastil played 8 matches so far for the hosts

David von Ballmoos appeared 7 times in goal for Lugano

Influences

Matches at the Stade de la Tuilière average 3.2 goals per game

Both teams scored in 80% of the games played at this venue

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