Match report →
Young Boys – Servette3 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Young Boys
2.06
Total xG
3.88
Servette
1.82
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Young Boys | Servette |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.9 goals/match) | +1.36 | +1.36 |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 2 league avg) | −0.31 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.2 goals/match) | +0.28 | |
| Rising form (3.2 vs 2.3 season average) | +0.28 | |
| Attack strength (1.43x league average) | +0.18 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.15 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.7 season average) | −0.15 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.11 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.02 | |
| Mathis Lambourde on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Timothé Cognat not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 16% of goal output missing (only 76% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Young Boys are currently scoring more frequently (3.2) than their season average (2.3)
- Young Boys recently averaged a strong 8.0 shots on target per match
- Only 34% of the attacking threat is available in the current Young Boys squad
Risks
- Servette with only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Servette recently averaged only 3.4 shots on target per match
- Servette concede an average of 1.89 goals per away match
All probabilities
Result
Young Boys43%
Draw23%
Servette34%
Double chance
Young Boys or draw66%
Servette or draw57%
No draw77%
Goals
Over 1.591%
Under 1.59%
Over 2.574%
Under 2.526%
Over 3.554%
Under 3.546%
Both teams score
Yes74%
No26%
Most likely scores
2:1
8%
2:2
7%
1:2
7%
3:1
5%
3:2
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Young Boys: 11 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Young Boys with Samuel Essende starting: 2.9 goals/game, without him: 1.7 (18/9 games, last 30)
- Young Boys: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Young Boys: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)
Lineups
Young Boys 4-2-3-1 · Servette 4-4-2
Young Boys
- 1 M. Keller
- 27 L. Blum
- 30 S. Lauper
- 23 L. Benito
- 33 S. Bukinac
- 8 A. Gigovic
- 6 E. Fernandes
- 16 C. Fassnacht
- 10 A. Antonio Sanches
- 7 A. Virginius
- 99 S. Essende
Servette
- 1 E. Gertmonas
- 23 Q. Maceiras
- 4 S. Rouiller
- 15 M. Burch
- 18 B. Mazikou
- 9 M. Stevanović
- 20 J. Simo
- 6 P. Naressi Machado
- 21 J. Karlsson
- 27 D. Fofana
- 7 K. Mutandwa
Substitutes
- 22 I. Schmidt
- 18 J. Mall
- 13 D. Pech
- 17 S. Janko
- 12 B. Guirassy
- 9 M. Sene
- 34 E. Etoski
- 52 N. Tschanz
- 54 S. Ubaka
- 77 T. Ouattara
- 28 D. Douline
- 34 T. Allix
- 14 L. Njoh
- 90 S. Mráz
- 36 T. Lopes
- 22 M. Lambourde
- 17 H. Mendes
- 44 L.Rieder
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