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Luzern – Grasshopper5 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Luzern
1.86
Total xG
3.48
Grasshopper
1.62
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Luzern | Grasshopper |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.9 goals/match) | +1.36 | +1.36 |
| Attack weakness (0.71x league average) | −0.98 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.65 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.14 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.14 | |
| Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.9 league avg) | −0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.05 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.04 | |
| Samuele Bengondo on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 12% of goal output missing (only 94% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Luzern averaged 5.4 shots on target per game in recent matches with 43.8% possession
- Grasshopper concede an average of 2.35 goals per away game this season
- Historical dominance favors Luzern with 4 wins out of the last 5 meetings
Risks
- According to the dataset only 16% of Luzern's usual goal production is available
- Grasshopper travel with only 4 days of rest since their last match
- Grasshopper conceded 5 goals in their last game against Sion
All probabilities
Result
Luzern43%
Draw25%
Grasshopper33%
Double chance
Luzern or draw67%
Grasshopper or draw57%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.568%
Under 2.533%
Over 3.546%
Under 3.554%
Both teams score
Yes69%
No31%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:2
7%
3:1
5%
5:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Luzern: 77% of all goals in the second half (17 of 22, last 12 games)
- Luzern: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Grasshopper: 35% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (7 of 20)
- Grasshopper: dropped a lead in 5 of 9 games (15 points lost)
- Grasshopper: 2.8 cards per game (30 yellows, 3 reds in 12 games)
Lineups
Luzern 4-2-2-2 · Grasshopper 4-3-3
Luzern
- 30 K. Letica
- 22 R. Fernandes
- 5 S. Knežević
- 46 B. Freimann
- 14 A. Cigaņiks
- 80 Mio Zimmermann
- 6 L. Bertone
- 24 T. Owusu
- 11 M. Di Giusto
- 19 D. Mikołajewski
- 16 O. Kabwit tshikomb
Grasshopper
- 1 M. Hübel
- 28 S. Stroscio
- 58 Y. Bettkober
- 44 B. Pllana
- 57 N. Rissi
- 10 Ó. Clemente Mues
- 66 M. Gibelalde Mujika
- 6 A. Abrashi
- 11 G. Morandi
- 9 N. Muci
- 17 S. Krasniqi
Substitutes
- 21 L. Lüthi
- 9 A. Grbic
- 10 L. Silva Ferreira
- 17 S. Wyss
- 29 L. Winkler
- 27 V. Villiger
- 1 S. Simoni
- 15 N. Toggenburg
- 18 B. Beenga
- 18 Y. Lee
- 34 A. Arigoni
- 71 J. Hammel
- 24 K. Goudmijn
- 4 L. Mikulić
- 60 S. Bengondo
- 55 D.Papic
- 56 D. Sahin
- 25 J. Hilton
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