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Super League

Luzern - Grasshopper

09/19/2026, 04:00 PM

5 : 1
Expected Goals
Luzern
1.9
Total xG
3.5
Grasshopper
1.6
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:2

7%

3:1

5%
What influences the xG?
LUZGRA

Luzern

Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
-0.06
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.05
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
-0.04
Full strength squad available

Grasshopper

Attack weakness (0.71x league average)
-0.98
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
+0.65
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.14
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.3 season average)
+0.14
Samuele Bengondo on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
12% of goal output missing (only 94% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.9 goals/match)
+1.36
+1.36
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Luzern: 77% of all goals in the second half (17 of 22, last 12 games)

  • 2
    Luzern: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Grasshopper: 35% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (7 of 20)

  • 4
    Grasshopper: dropped a lead in 5 of 9 games (15 points lost)

  • 5
    Grasshopper: 2.8 cards per game (30 yellows, 3 reds in 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

43%

Draw

25%

Away Win

33%

Goals

Over 1.5

87%

Under 1.5

13%

Over 2.5

68%

Under 2.5

33%

Over 3.5

46%

Under 3.5

54%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

67%

Away or Draw

57%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

69%

No

31%

Key Factors
  • Luzern averaged 5.4 shots on target per game in recent matches with 43.8% possession
  • Grasshopper concede an average of 2.35 goals per away game this season
  • Historical dominance favors Luzern with 4 wins out of the last 5 meetings
Risk Factors
  • According to the dataset only 16% of Luzern's usual goal production is available
  • Grasshopper travel with only 4 days of rest since their last match
  • Grasshopper conceded 5 goals in their last game against Sion
Overview

Luzern host Grasshopper at the swissporarena

Super League match on September 19, 2026, 6:00 PM

Mid-table clash between 8th and 9th place

Mathematical analysis favors Luzern with a 43% win probability

Form

Luzern form: WDWDL

Luzern lost their last match 2-4 against Basel

Grasshopper form: LWDWL

Grasshopper lost their last match 2-5 against Sion

Statistics

Luzern average 2.00 goals scored and 1.74 goals conceded per game this season

Grasshopper average 1.26 goals scored and 1.95 goals conceded per game

Luzern concede an average of 1.81 goals at home

Grasshopper concede an average of 2.35 goals away from home

Head-to-Head

Luzern won 4 of the last 5 head-to-head matches

The last meeting ended in a 2-1 victory for Luzern

Goal difference in these matches is 16-9 in favor of Luzern

Key Players

Matteo Di Giusto with 3 goals and 1 assist this season

Andrejs Ciganiks with 3 goals and a rating of 7.17

Rúben Dantas Fernandes with 1 goal and 1 assist

Samuel Krasniqi with 2 goals, 2 assists and a rating of 6.91

Amir Abrashi with 2 goals and 1 assist

Yannick Bettkober with an average rating of 7.28

Not in the squad for the visitors is Samuele Bengondo

Goalkeepers

Karlo Letica is in goal for Luzern, who have 7 clean sheets this season

Marvin Hübel is in goal for the visitors, who have 5 clean sheets this season

Influences

Played on natural grass at the swissporarena

The venue recently averaged 3.0 goals per game

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