Match report →
Basel – St. Gallen1 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Basel
1.42
Total xG
2.92
St. Gallen
1.50
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Basel | St. Gallen |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.9 goals/match) | +1.38 | +1.38 |
| Attack weakness (0.46x league average) | −1.22 | |
| Attack weakness (0.66x league average) | −1.14 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.71 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.68 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.9 league avg) | −0.38 | |
| Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 2 league avg) | −0.30 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.22 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.9 season average) | −0.22 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.20 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.20 | |
| Asane Sow not in squad (3 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Lukas Görtler not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 11% of goal output missing (only 97% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.5 vs 1.9 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Trend advantage for Basel: The hosts currently score more (2.2) than their season average (1.5), while St. Gallen's attack has stalled at 1.2
- Historical dominance for the visitors: St. Gallen won four of the last five direct encounters against Basel, with a 10-3 goal ratio
- High-scoring stadium profile: St. Jakob-Park averages 3.6 goals per game, supported by a calculated 60% BTTS probability
Risks
- Defensive struggles for both: Basel conceded 2.2 goals per game in recent matches, while St. Gallen conceded an average of 2.6 in their latest outings
- Key absences: Basel are without the impactful Asane Sow (3 goals, 4 assists), while St. Gallen play without midfield anchor Lukas Görtler (2 goals, 1 assist)
All probabilities
Result
Basel35%
Draw28%
St. Gallen38%
Double chance
Basel or draw62%
St. Gallen or draw65%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.556%
Under 2.544%
Over 3.533%
Under 3.567%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
2:2
6%
0:2
6%
1:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Basel: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- St. Gallen: 6 of 16 goals scored by substitutes (last 11 games)
- St. Gallen: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Basel: 9 of 25 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Basel: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Basel: 7 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Basel 4-2-3-1 · St. Gallen 3-1-4-2
Basel
- 13 M. Salvi
- 6 K. Tsunemoto
- 24 F. Daniliuc
- 55 A. Victory Maduabuchukwu
- 22 C. Michelin
- 5 A. Silu
- 44 J. Harder
- 11 K. Olaigbe
- 10 X. Shaqiri
- 7 P. Otele
- 9 Ž. Celar
St. Gallen
- 1 L. Ati-Zigi
- 3 C. Kleine-Bekel
- 4 J. Stanic
- 36 C. Okoroji
- 64 M. Stevanovic
- 7 C. Witzig
- 10 L. Daschner
- 23 B. Fazliji
- 28 H. Vandermersch
- 9 A. Hunziker
- 14 A. Balde
Substitutes
- 3 N. Vouilloz
- 27 K. Rüegg
- 17 A. Malouda
- 29 M. Cisse
- 37 G. Koloto
- 4 B. Omeragic
- 8 L. Malachowski Thorell
- 49 R. Widmer D’Autilia
- 41 J. Doucoure
- 11 C. Boukhalfa
- 31 D. Besio
- 25 L. Watkowiak
- 26 T. Gaal
- 47 E. Owusu
- 74 J. Ruiz
- 70 N. Scherrer
- 20 L. Frokaj
- 68 M. Heydari
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