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Super League

Basel - St. Gallen

09/20/2026, 02:30 PM

1 : 3
Expected Goals
Basel
1.4
Total xG
2.9
St. Gallen
1.5
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

1:2

9%

2:1

8%

2:2

6%

0:2

6%
What influences the xG?
BASSG

Basel

Attack weakness (0.46x league average)
-1.22
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
+0.68
Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 2 league avg)
-0.30
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.20
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.5 season average)
+0.20
Asane Sow not in squad (3 goals, 4 assists)

St. Gallen

Attack weakness (0.66x league average)
-1.14
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
+0.71
Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
-0.38
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.22
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.9 season average)
-0.22
Lukas Görtler not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
11% of goal output missing (only 97% available)
Weak away record (1.5 vs 1.9 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.9 goals/match)
+1.38
+1.38
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Basel: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    St. Gallen: 6 of 16 goals scored by substitutes (last 11 games)

  • 3
    St. Gallen: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 4
    Basel: 9 of 25 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

  • 5
    Basel: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)

  • 6
    Basel: 7 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

35%

Draw

28%

Away Win

38%

Goals

Over 1.5

80%

Under 1.5

20%

Over 2.5

56%

Under 2.5

44%

Over 3.5

33%

Under 3.5

67%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

62%

Away or Draw

65%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

60%

No

40%

Key Factors
  • Trend advantage for Basel: The hosts currently score more (2.2) than their season average (1.5), while St. Gallen's attack has stalled at 1.2
  • Historical dominance for the visitors: St. Gallen won four of the last five direct encounters against Basel, with a 10-3 goal ratio
  • High-scoring stadium profile: St. Jakob-Park averages 3.6 goals per game, supported by a calculated 60% BTTS probability
Risk Factors
  • Defensive struggles for both: Basel conceded 2.2 goals per game in recent matches, while St. Gallen conceded an average of 2.6 in their latest outings
  • Key absences: Basel are without the impactful Asane Sow (3 goals, 4 assists), while St. Gallen play without midfield anchor Lukas Görtler (2 goals, 1 assist)
Overview

Basel host St. Gallen at the St. Jakob-Park

Super League match on September 20, 2026, 4:30 PM

Basel sit in 4th place with 13 points

St. Gallen are in 8th place with 10 points

A key mid-table clash in the Swiss league

Form

Basel show mixed form with a WDLLW record

The hosts recently secured a 4-2 win against Luzern

St. Gallen are struggling with LLWLL form, losing four of their last five matches

The visitors are on a two-game losing streak

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Basel score 1.45 goals per game and concede 1.53 on average

St. Gallen have a strong attack scoring 1.89 goals per match this season

Away from home, St. Gallen concede only 1.14 goals per game

Matches at St. Jakob-Park averaged 3.6 goals per game this season

Head-to-Head

St. Gallen dominate the recent head-to-head with 4 wins in 5 matches

Basel did not win any of those meetings, with 1 draw

The last direct encounter ended in a 3-1 away win for St. Gallen on May 14, 2026

Goal difference stands at 10-3 in favor of the visitors

Key Players

Zan Celar leads Basel's attack with 5 goals this season

Kazeem Olaigbe has been highly productive with 2 goals and 4 assists

Xherdan Shaqiri contributed 3 goals and 1 assist

Aliou Baldé has scored 2 goals and provided 1 assist for St. Gallen

Chima Okoroji registered 3 assists this season

Lukas Daschner has scored 2 goals so far

Goalkeepers

Mirko Salvi starts for Basel, holding a season rating of 6.62

Basel have recorded 9 clean sheets this season

Lawrence Ati Zigi features for St. Gallen with a season rating of 6.61

The visitors have kept 8 clean sheets so far

Influences

Basel play on grass at St. Jakob-Park

The stadium statistics show an average of 3.6 goals per game

Both teams scored in 80% of matches at this venue

St. Gallen had only 4 days of rest compared to Basel's 7 days

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