Match report →
Sion – Zürich1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Sion
2.19
Total xG
3.85
Zürich
1.66
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Sion | Zürich |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.9 goals/match) | +1.36 | +1.36 |
| Attack strength (1.21x league average) | +0.72 | |
| Attack weakness (0.59x league average) | −0.63 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.43 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.32 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match) | +0.22 | |
| Rising form (2.8 vs 2.1 season average) | +0.22 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.20 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.20 | |
| Franck Surdez on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Donat Rrudhani not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (2.5 vs 2.1 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Visitor weakness: Zürich must play without most of their usual goal threat, as only 27% of their goal-scoring capacity is available
- Sion averaged an impressive 6.6 shots on target per match in their recent games
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 49% and 2.19 expected goals for Sion
Risks
- Away weakness: Zürich concede an average of 2.25 goals per away game this season
- Defensive instability for Zürich with only 2 clean sheets across the entire season
All probabilities
Result
Sion49%
Draw22%
Zürich28%
Double chance
Sion or draw72%
Zürich or draw51%
No draw78%
Goals
Over 1.591%
Under 1.59%
Over 2.574%
Under 2.526%
Over 3.554%
Under 3.546%
Both teams score
Yes73%
No27%
Most likely scores
2:1
8%
2:2
7%
1:2
6%
3:1
6%
3:2
5%
1:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Sion: 12 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Zürich: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Sion: 9 of 25 goals scored by substitutes (last 9 games)
- Zürich: 76% of all goals in the second half (13 of 17, last 12 games)
- Josias Lukembila: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Zürich: 35% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (6 of 17)
Lineups
Sion 4-3-3 · Zürich 4-1-4-1
Sion
- 1 A. Racioppi
- 14 N. Lavanchy
- 5 N. Sow
- 17 J. Kronig
- 20 N. Hefti
- 37 F. Sylla
- 88 A. Kabacalman
- 8 B. Costa Rodrigues de Oliveira
- 7 I. Chouaref
- 13 W. Boteli
- 9 J. Lukembila
Zürich
- 1 S. Huber
- 47 D. Lichtenstein
- 2 L. Kamberi
- 21 L. Schödler
- 43 N. Volken
- 23 V. Berisha
- 8 L. Comenencia
- 38 M. Reichmuth
- 7 B. Krasniqi
- 11 U. Emmanuel
- 19 P. Keny
Substitutes
- 6 M. Cipriano
- 29 T. Berdayes
- 12 F. Ruberto
- 10 B. Kololli
- 21 L. Chipperfield
- 33 R. Nivokazi
- 19 F. Surdez
- 38 R. Kessler
- 24 D. Möschinger
- 17 K. Spadanuda
- 4 J. Segura Portocarrero
- 18 M. Bangoura
- 13 H. Lindner
- 46 J. Stiel
- 49 D. Ramić
- 14 N. Di Giusto
- 6 C. Fiorini
- 33 Valentin Beck
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