Match report →
Vaduz – Thun1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Vaduz
1.96
Total xG
3.47
Thun
1.50
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Vaduz | Thun |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.9 goals/match) | +1.38 | +1.38 |
| Attack weakness (0.6x league average) | −1.11 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.69 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.20 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.7 season average) | +0.20 | |
| Attack strength (1.28x league average) | +0.16 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.16 | |
| Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.9 league avg) | −0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.14 | |
| Defensive strength (1.9 conceded vs 2 league avg) | −0.09 | |
| Nicolas Bürgy not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Fabio Fehr on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Vaduz averaged 6.0 shots on target in recent matches
- The model predicts a high probability of 67% for over 2.5 goals
- Thun lost 3 games in a row recently and got only one win in past matches
Risks
- Thun averaged only 3.2 shots on target in recent matches
- Vaduz concedes an average of 2.38 goals per game this season
- Restricted data quality for weather conditions
All probabilities
Result
Vaduz47%
Draw24%
Thun28%
Double chance
Vaduz or draw72%
Thun or draw53%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.567%
Under 2.533%
Over 3.546%
Under 3.554%
Both teams score
Yes68%
No32%
Most likely scores
1:1
10%
2:1
9%
1:2
7%
2:2
7%
2:0
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Vaduz: 9 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Thun: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Thun: dropped a lead in 4 of 6 games (11 points lost)
- Vaduz: goal in the first 15 minutes in 7 of 12 games (58%)
- Vaduz: dropped a lead in 5 of 9 games (14 points lost)
- Vaduz: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Vaduz 4-3-1-2 · Thun 4-2-2-2
Vaduz
- 25 L. Schaffran
- 4 N. Hasler
- 27 N. Lang
- 6 D. Simani
- 7 D. Schwizer
- 17 J. Stark
- 20 L. Mack
- 10 J. Cabrera
- 28 M. Cocic
- 11 L. Dalipi
- 9 M. Michael Monsberger
Thun
- 1 N. Steffen
- 37 L. Dähler
- 19 J. Bamert
- 13 N. Zoukit
- 18 T. Strannegard
- 16 J. Roth
- 14 M. Käit
- 70 N. Reichmuth
- 8 F. Saiz Pennarossa
- 96 B. Labeau Melchior
- 9 F. Dursun
Substitutes
- 14 M. Beeli
- 1 B. Büchel
- 23 M. Hammerich
- 29 M. Sawadogo
- 19 D. Djokic
- 30 M. Walker
- 37 L. Celentano
- 38 N. Föllmi
- 18 D. Kasper
- 47 F. Fehr
- 25 T. Spycher
- 2 O. Mambwa
- 15 P. Kristal
- 30 N. Maier
- 21 D. Derbaci
- 54 L. Passavant
- 80 S. Lengen
- 26 N. Christoffersson
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