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Super League

Vaduz - Thun

09/20/2026, 12:00 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Vaduz
2.0
Total xG
3.5
Thun
1.5
Most Likely Scores

1:1

10%

2:1

9%

1:2

7%

2:2

7%

2:0

6%
What influences the xG?
VADTHU

Vaduz

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.20
Rising form (2.4 vs 1.7 season average)
+0.20
Attack strength (1.28x league average)
+0.16
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
-0.16
Defensive strength (1.9 conceded vs 2 league avg)
-0.09
Full strength squad available

Thun

Attack weakness (0.6x league average)
-1.11
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
+0.69
Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
-0.14
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.14
Nicolas Bürgy not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
Fabio Fehr on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)

League

High-scoring league (3.9 goals/match)
+1.38
+1.38
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Vaduz: 9 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Thun: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Thun: dropped a lead in 4 of 6 games (11 points lost)

  • 4
    Vaduz: goal in the first 15 minutes in 7 of 12 games (58%)

  • 5
    Vaduz: dropped a lead in 5 of 9 games (14 points lost)

  • 6
    Vaduz: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

47%

Draw

24%

Away Win

28%

Goals

Over 1.5

87%

Under 1.5

13%

Over 2.5

67%

Under 2.5

33%

Over 3.5

46%

Under 3.5

54%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

72%

Away or Draw

53%

No Draw

76%

Both Score

Yes

68%

No

32%

Key Factors
  • Vaduz averaged 6.0 shots on target in recent matches
  • The model predicts a high probability of 67% for over 2.5 goals
  • Thun lost 3 games in a row recently and got only one win in past matches
Risk Factors
  • Thun averaged only 3.2 shots on target in recent matches
  • Vaduz concedes an average of 2.38 goals per game this season
  • Restricted data quality for weather conditions
Overview

Vaduz host Thun at the Rheinpark Stadion

Super League match on September 20, 2026, 2:00 PM

A bottom-of-the-table clash between 11th and 10th place

Only one point separates the two teams in the standings

Form

Vaduz shows an inconsistent form with LWLWL

Most recently, they suffered a 1-2 defeat against Zürich

Overall, they have 2 wins and 3 losses in their recent form

Thun travels with a form of WDLLL

They are on a 3-game losing streak, including a 2-4 loss to Servette

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Vaduz scores an average of 2.13 goals per game this season

At the same time, the home team concedes an average of 2.38 goals

In all 8 season matches of Vaduz, both teams scored and there were over 2.5 goals

Thun averages 2.11 goals scored and 1.37 goals conceded per season

In 28 of Thun's 38 games, there were over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

There have been 2 head-to-head matches between these teams so far

Both matches ended in a draw

The goal difference is balanced at 2-2

The last encounter ended in a 2-2 draw on August 6, 2015

Key Players

Lutfi Dalipi shines with an average rating of 7.50 as well as 3 goals and 7 assists

Juan Cabrera has already contributed 4 season goals

Miloš Cocić has also scored 3 goals this campaign

For Thun, Furkan Dursun registered 1 goal and 3 assists with a 7.11 rating

Brighton Labeau has scored 3 times this season

Fabio Saiz has contributed 2 goals and 1 assist so far

Nicolas Bürgy and Fabio Fehr are not in the squad for the visitors

Goalkeepers

Leon Schaffran guards the goal for Vaduz and holds an average rating of 6.94

So far, Vaduz has not kept a clean sheet this season

For Thun, Niklas Steffen is in goal with a 6.61 rating

Thun has kept 6 clean sheets so far this campaign

Influences

Vaduz scores an average of 2 goals per home game and concedes 1.2 goals

Matches at the Rheinpark Stadion are highly high-scoring, averaging 4.8 goals per game

Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 home games at the Rheinpark Stadion

Thun averages 2.06 goals scored and 1.35 goals conceded away from home

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