Match report →
Zürich – Thun4 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Zürich
1.70
Total xG
3.32
Thun
1.62
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Zürich | Thun |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.9 goals/match) | +1.37 | +1.37 |
| Attack weakness (0.72x league average) | −0.79 | |
| Attack weakness (0.73x league average) | −0.43 | |
| Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean | +0.42 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.26 | |
| Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean | +0.24 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.20 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.20 | |
| Declining form (1.5 vs 2.1 season average) | −0.17 | |
| Defensive strength (2 conceded vs 1.9 league avg) | +0.07 | |
| Fabio Saiz not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Nils Reichmuth on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Brighton Labeau not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 40% of goal output missing (only 75% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.7 vs 1.3 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Squad restriction: Zürich currently have only 29% of their seasonal goal threat available in the squad
- Form trend: Zürich are scoring more frequently recently (2.0) than their season average (1.3)
- Tactical volume: Zürich averaged 5.0 shots on target in recent matches, compared to Thun's 3.2 average
Risks
- Thun averaged only 3.2 shots on target in recent matches
- Zürich conceded an average of 1.64 goals per home game this season
- Extended break of 21 and 20 days respectively since the last competitive match
All probabilities
Result
Zürich39%
Draw26%
Thun36%
Goals
Over 1.586%
Under 1.514%
Over 2.564%
Under 2.536%
Over 3.542%
Under 3.558%
Double chance
Zürich or draw64%
Thun or draw61%
No draw74%
Both teams score
Yes67%
No33%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
2:1
8%
1:2
8%
2:2
7%
2:0
5%
4:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Thun: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Zürich: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Zürich: 38% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (6 of 16)
- Zürich: 75% of all goals in the second half (12 of 16, last 12 games)
- Zürich: dropped a lead in 5 of 9 games (13 points lost)
Lineups
Zürich 4-1-4-1 · Thun 4-4-2
Zürich
- 1 S. Huber
- 47 D. Lichtenstein
- 2 L. Kamberi
- 21 L. Schödler
- 43 N. Volken
- 23 V. Berisha
- 17 K. Spadanuda
- 38 M. Reichmuth
- 7 B. Krasniqi
- 11 U. Emmanuel
- 19 P. Keny
Thun
- 1 N. Steffen
- 47 F. Fehr
- 5 N. Bürgy
- 19 J. Bamert
- 18 T. Strannegard
- 30 N. Maier
- 16 J. Roth
- 13 N. Zoukit
- 52 A. Ilic
- 80 S. Lengen
- 9 F. Dursun
Substitutes
- 8 L. Comenencia
- 4 J. Segura Portocarrero
- 18 M. Bangoura
- 13 H. Lindner
- 46 J. Stiel
- 49 D. Ramić
- 14 N. Di Giusto
- 6 C. Fiorini
- 42 A. Hack
- 37 L. Dähler
- 70 N. Reichmuth
- 17 A. Balaruban
- 25 T. Spycher
- 2 O. Mambwa
- 20 R. Braschi
- 21 D. Derbaci
- 54 L. Passavant
- 26 N. Christoffersson
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