Match report ā
Vaduz ā Basel3 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Vaduz
1.83
Total xG
3.48
Basel
1.65
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Vaduz | Basel |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.9 goals/match) | +1.39 | +1.39 |
| Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.9 league avg) | ā0.22 | |
| Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean | +0.21 | |
| Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean | +0.17 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.15 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.7 season average) | +0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2 goals/match) | +0.14 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.14 | |
| Asane Sow not in squad (3 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Akpe Victory on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (2.1 vs 1.7 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Matchup advantage: Vaduz score 2.00 goals per game on average against a Basel side conceding 2.06 goals per away game
- Offensive pressure: Vaduz averaged 5.4 shots on target in recent matches
- Model forecast: The analysis calculates a 41% home win probability and a 69% chance for both teams to score
Risks
- Vaduz concede 2.33 goals per game on average and have not kept a single clean sheet this season
- Basel averaged 2.6 goals conceded in recent matches
All probabilities
Result
Vaduz41%
Draw25%
Basel34%
Goals
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.568%
Under 2.532%
Over 3.546%
Under 3.554%
Double chance
Vaduz or draw66%
Basel or draw59%
No draw75%
Both teams score
Yes69%
No31%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:2
7%
3:1
5%
3:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Vaduz: 10 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Basel: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Vaduz: dropped a lead in 5 of 8 games (14 points lost)
- Vaduz: goal in the first 15 minutes in 6 of 12 games (50%)
- Basel: 10 of 27 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Basel: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Vaduz 4-3-1-2 Ā· Basel 4-2-3-1
Vaduz
- 25 L. Schaffran
- 4 N. Hasler
- 6 D. Simani
- 5 L. Berisha
- 7 D. Schwizer
- 17 J. Stark
- 20 L. Mack
- 10 J. Cabrera
- 28 M. Cocic
- 9 M. Michael Monsberger
- 11 L. Dalipi
Basel
- 1 J. Omlin
- 22 C. Michelin
- 4 B. Omeragic
- 24 F. Daniliuc
- 29 M. Cisse
- 5 A. Silu
- 44 J. Harder
- 7 P. Otele
- 10 X. Shaqiri
- 11 K. Olaigbe
- 9 Ž. Celar
Substitutes
- 27 N. Lang
- 14 M. Beeli
- 1 B. BĆ¼chel
- 23 M. Hammerich
- 29 M. Sawadogo
- 19 D. Djokic
- 30 M. Walker
- 18 D. Kasper
- 6 K. Tsunemoto
- 3 N. Vouilloz
- 13 M. Salvi
- 27 K. RĆ¼egg
- 17 A. Malouda
- 55 A. Victory Maduabuchukwu
- 37 G. Koloto
- 8 L. Malachowski Thorell
- 41 J. Doucoure
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