Match report ā
Servette ā Sion3 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Servette
1.66
Total xG
3.40
Sion
1.74
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Servette | Sion |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.9 goals/match) | +1.37 | +1.37 |
| Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean | +0.63 | |
| Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean | +0.26 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match) | +0.23 | |
| Rising form (2.8 vs 2 season average) | +0.23 | |
| Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.9 league avg) | ā0.22 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | ā0.09 | |
| Donat Rrudhani not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 14% of goal output missing (only 91% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Sion currently scores more frequently (2.8 goals) than their season average (2.0 goals)
- Servette averaged only 3.0 shots on target in their last 5 matches
- Sion averaged 6.2 shots on target in recent matches
Risks
- Servette has only 14% of its active goal threat available in the starting lineup
- Sion is missing Donat Rrudhani with 3 goals and 1 assist
- Servette concedes an average of 1.66 goals per game this season
All probabilities
Result
Servette36%
Draw25%
Sion39%
Goals
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.566%
Under 2.534%
Over 3.544%
Under 3.556%
Double chance
Servette or draw61%
Sion or draw64%
No draw75%
Both teams score
Yes68%
No32%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
2:2
7%
0:2
5%
3:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Sion: 11 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Sion: 9 of 26 goals scored by substitutes (last 10 games)
- Josias Lukembila: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Sion: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Servette 4-2-3-1 Ā· Sion 4-3-3
Servette
- 1 E. Gertmonas
- 17 H. Mendes
- 4 S. Rouiller
- 15 M. Burch
- 18 B. Mazikou
- 6 P. Naressi Machado
- 20 J. Simo
- 22 M. Lambourde
- 36 T. Lopes
- 21 J. Karlsson
- 7 K. Mutandwa
Sion
- 1 A. Racioppi
- 14 N. Lavanchy
- 5 N. Sow
- 17 J. Kronig
- 6 M. Cipriano
- 21 L. Chipperfield
- 88 A. Kabacalman
- 8 B. Costa Rodrigues de Oliveira
- 7 I. Chouaref
- 13 W. Boteli
- 19 F. Surdez
Substitutes
- 77 T. Ouattara
- 28 D. Douline
- 34 T. Allix
- 14 L. Njoh
- 90 S. MrƔz
- 23 Q. Maceiras
- 35 A. Vincent
- 78 L. Besson
- 41 T.Nunez
- 9 J. Lukembila
- 22 A. Llukes
- 29 T. Berdayes
- 12 F. Ruberto
- 20 N. Hefti
- 10 B. Kololli
- 33 R. Nivokazi
- 55 L. Villa
- 38 R. Kessler
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