Match report â
St. Gallen â Lausanne Sport1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
St. Gallen
2.06
Total xG
3.36
Lausanne Sport
1.30
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | St. Gallen | Lausanne Sport |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.9 goals/match) | +1.39 | +1.39 |
| Attack weakness (0.42x league average) | â1.35 | |
| Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean | +0.74 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 2 league avg) | â0.45 | |
| Attack strength (1.49x league average) | +0.40 | |
| Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean | â0.32 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.9 league avg) | â0.27 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | â0.26 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | â0.23 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 2 season average) | â0.23 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.4 season average) | â0.21 | |
| Chima Okoroji not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Carlo Boukhalfa on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Omar Janneh on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Model prediction and home strength: Mathematical calculations indicate a 54% win probability for St. Gallen
- Fragile away defense: Lausanne Sport concede an average of 2.43 goals per away match this season
- Offensive volume: St. Gallen averaged 6.4 shots on target in recent matches
Risks
- Lausanne Sport averaged only 3.4 shots on target in recent matches
- St. Gallen averaged 1.2 goals per game in recent matches compared to their seasonal average of 1.96
- Lausanne Sport suffer squad losses with A. Sow and S. Koné both suspended
All probabilities
Result
St. Gallen54%
Draw24%
Lausanne Sport23%
Goals
Over 1.586%
Under 1.514%
Over 2.565%
Under 2.535%
Over 3.543%
Under 3.557%
Double chance
St. Gallen or draw77%
Lausanne Sport or draw46%
No draw76%
Both teams score
Yes65%
No35%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
2:1
10%
2:0
7%
3:1
7%
2:2
6%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Lausanne Sport: 3.4 cards per game (39 yellows, 2 reds in 12 games)
- St. Gallen: 7 of 19 goals scored by substitutes (last 11 games)
- St. Gallen: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Lausanne Sport: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
Lineups
St. Gallen 3-1-4-2 · Lausanne Sport 3-4-3
St. Gallen
- 1 L. Ati-Zigi
- 26 T. Gaal
- 4 J. Stanic
- 68 M. Heydari
- 64 M. Stevanovic
- 7 C. Witzig
- 16 L. Görtler
- 10 L. Daschner
- 28 H. Vandermersch
- 9 A. Hunziker
- 14 A. Balde
Lausanne Sport
- 90 M. Mastil
- 4 Ă. Kinkoue
- 31 N. Cozza
- 5 D. Ngonzo
- 2 B. Soppy
- 29 A. Blin
- 91 F. Mollet
- 18 M. Poaty
- 11 N. Butler-Oyedeji
- 7 A. Ajdini
- 77 L. Nene
Substitutes
- 11 C. Boukhalfa
- 23 B. Fazliji
- 25 L. Watkowiak
- 6 B. Neziri
- 47 E. Owusu
- 27 K. Csoboth
- 74 J. Ruiz
- 70 N. Scherrer
- 20 L. Frokaj
- 1 T. Castella
- 17 S. Traore
- 47 P. NDiaye
- 10 O. Custodio Da Costa
- 9 E. Honoré Molébé
- 59 O. Renovales
- 78 O. Janneh Susso
- 51 I. Mendes
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