Match report →
Grasshopper – Young Boys0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Grasshopper
1.71
Total xG
4.04
Young Boys
2.33
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Grasshopper | Young Boys |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.9 goals/match) | +1.39 | +1.39 |
| Attack strength (1.51x league average) | +0.69 | |
| Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean | −0.36 | |
| Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean | +0.23 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3 goals/match) | +0.22 | |
| Rising form (3 vs 2.3 season average) | +0.22 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 2, 8 places gap) | −0.15 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 10, 8 places gap) | +0.09 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.08 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.08 | |
| Samuele Bengondo not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Nikolas Muci on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 16% of goal output missing (only 90% available) | ||
| Stefan Bukinac on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Defensive strength (1.9 conceded vs 1.9 league avg) | ||
| Strong home record (2.2 vs 1.3 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Attacking form: Young Boys currently score more frequently (3.0 goals) than their season average (2.11 goals) and hold a 51% win probability with 2.33 expected goals
- High goal potential: Over 2.5 goals is calculated at a 77% probability, supported by Young Boys averaging 7.0 shots on target in recent matches
- Unbeaten run: Young Boys remain undefeated with 2 wins and 3 draws, while Grasshopper suffered 2 losses in their last five games
Risks
- Away defensive vulnerability: Young Boys concede an average of 2.44 goals per away match
- Home defense weakness: Grasshopper conceded 34 goals in 21 home matches this season
All probabilities
Result
Grasshopper27%
Draw22%
Young Boys51%
Goals
Over 1.592%
Under 1.58%
Over 2.577%
Under 2.523%
Over 3.557%
Under 3.543%
Double chance
Grasshopper or draw49%
Young Boys or draw73%
No draw78%
Both teams score
Yes75%
No25%
Most likely scores
1:2
8%
2:2
7%
1:3
6%
2:1
6%
2:3
5%
0:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Young Boys: 12 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Grasshopper: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Young Boys with Samuel Essende starting: 2.9 goals/game, without him: 1.9 (19/8 games, last 30)
- Young Boys: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Young Boys: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)
Lineups
Grasshopper 4-3-3 · Young Boys 4-2-3-1
Grasshopper
- 1 M. Hübel
- 28 S. Stroscio
- 58 Y. Bettkober
- 44 B. Pllana
- 57 N. Rissi
- 24 K. Goudmijn
- 66 M. Gibelalde Mujika
- 6 A. Abrashi
- 10 Ó. Clemente Mues
- 18 Y. Lee
- 17 S. Krasniqi
Young Boys
- 1 M. Keller
- 27 L. Blum
- 30 S. Lauper
- 15 C. Zesiger
- 22 I. Schmidt
- 8 A. Gigovic
- 6 E. Fernandes
- 16 C. Fassnacht
- 10 A. Antonio Sanches
- 7 A. Virginius
- 99 S. Essende
Substitutes
- 34 A. Arigoni
- 9 N. Muci
- 71 J. Hammel
- 11 G. Morandi
- 4 L. Mikulić
- 55 D.Papic
- 56 D. Sahin
- 25 J. Hilton
- 4 M. Jenz
- 18 J. Mall
- 13 D. Pech
- 17 S. Janko
- 12 B. Guirassy
- 9 M. Sene
- 33 S. Bukinac
- 34 E. Etoski
- 52 N. Tschanz
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