Match report →
Basel – Grasshopper0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Basel
1.91
Total xG
3.28
Grasshopper
1.36
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Basel | Grasshopper |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.7 goals/match) | +1.24 | +1.24 |
| Attack weakness (0.5x league average) | −1.05 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.51 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.26 | |
| Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 2 league avg) | −0.24 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| Nikolas Muci on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 12% of goal output missing (only 92% available) |
Key factors
- Table: Basel rank 7th in the league after 10 games with 13 points, Grasshopper 11th with 8 points
- Defense: Grasshopper conceded 2.6 goals per game away from home in the league this season
- Head-to-head: Basel won 3 of the last 5 meetings against Grasshopper, with 1 draw
Risks
- Form: Basel recorded 4 losses and 1 win in their last 5 games
- Home record: Basel conceded 2.2 goals per game at home in the league this season
All probabilities
Result
Basel49%
Draw25%
Grasshopper26%
Double chance
Basel or draw74%
Grasshopper or draw51%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.564%
Under 2.536%
Over 3.541%
Under 3.559%
Both teams score
Yes65%
No35%
xG score
2:1
From xG 1.91 : 1.36, rounded up only from .99% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
11%
2:0
7%
1:2
7%
2:2
6%
0:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Basel: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Basel: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Basel: 33% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 18)
Lineups
Basel 4-2-2-2 · Grasshopper 3-4-3
Basel
- 1 J. Omlin
- 22 C. Michelin
- 55 A. Victory Maduabuchukwu
- 24 F. Daniliuc
- 29 M. Cisse
- 4 B. Omeragic
- 5 A. Silu
- 10 X. Shaqiri
- 11 K. Olaigbe
- 37 G. Koloto
- 9 Ž. Celar
Grasshopper
- 1 M. Hübel
- 44 B. Pllana
- 58 Y. Bettkober
- 57 N. Rissi
- 28 S. Stroscio
- 6 A. Abrashi
- 66 M. Gibelalde Mujika
- 17 S. Krasniqi
- 10 Ó. Clemente Mues
- 18 Y. Lee
- 24 K. Goudmijn
Substitutes
- 6 K. Tsunemoto
- 3 N. Vouilloz
- 14 A. Bačanin
- 13 M. Salvi
- 27 K. Rüegg
- 7 P. Otele
- 44 J. Harder
- 8 L. Malachowski Thorell
- 25 C. Louis
- 81 J. Vonmoos
- 34 A. Arigoni
- 9 N. Muci
- 71 J. Hammel
- 11 G. Morandi
- 4 L. Mikulić
- 55 D.Papic
- 56 D. Sahin
- 25 J. Hilton
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