Match report →
Servette – Vaduz2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Servette
1.92
Total xG
3.50
Vaduz
1.58
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Servette | Vaduz |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.30 | +1.30 |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.41 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 2 league avg) | −0.31 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.08 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | −0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Table: Servette are 6th in the league this season with 13 points, Vaduz are 10th with 9 points
- Away: Vaduz concede 2.6 goals per game away in the league this season, Servette concede 1.0 at home
- Attack: Vaduz score and concede 2.1 goals per game each in the league this season
Risks
- Possession: Vaduz average 59.2% possession in recent games, Servette 43.4%
- Home: Servette score 1.2 goals per game at home in the league this season, Vaduz score 2.1 in the league
All probabilities
Result
Servette45%
Draw24%
Vaduz31%
Double chance
Servette or draw69%
Vaduz or draw55%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.588%
Under 1.512%
Over 2.568%
Under 2.532%
Over 3.546%
Under 3.554%
Both teams score
Yes69%
No31%
xG score
2:1
From xG 1.92 : 1.58, rounded up only from .99% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
7%
2:2
7%
3:1
6%
3:2
4%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Vaduz: 11 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Vaduz: goal in the first 15 minutes in 6 of 12 games (50%)
- Vaduz: dropped a lead in 5 of 9 games (14 points lost)
- Vaduz with Lutfi Dalipi starting: 2.2 goals/game, without him: 1 (13/5 games, last 18)
Lineups
Servette 4-2-3-1 · Vaduz 4-3-1-2
Servette
- 1 E. Gertmonas
- 17 H. Mendes
- 4 S. Rouiller
- 15 M. Burch
- 18 B. Mazikou
- 20 J. Simo
- 6 P. Naressi Machado
- 22 M. Lambourde
- 36 T. Lopes
- 21 J. Karlsson
- 7 K. Mutandwa
Vaduz
- 25 L. Schaffran
- 4 N. Hasler
- 27 N. Lang
- 5 L. Berisha
- 7 D. Schwizer
- 17 J. Stark
- 20 L. Mack
- 10 J. Cabrera
- 28 M. Cocic
- 9 M. Michael Monsberger
- 11 L. Dalipi
Substitutes
- 77 T. Ouattara
- 28 D. Douline
- 34 T. Allix
- 14 L. Njoh
- 90 S. Mráz
- 23 Q. Maceiras
- 35 A. Vincent
- 78 L. Besson
- 39 Eronis Haxhiu
- 14 M. Beeli
- 22 M. Eberhard
- 1 B. Büchel
- 23 M. Hammerich
- 29 M. Sawadogo
- 19 D. Djokic
- 30 M. Walker
- 37 L. Celentano
- 18 D. Kasper
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